🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast in the Berlin state election (September 20, 2026), confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

57%

The AfD received only 9.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election. Since then the AfD has gained significantly nationally — at the 2025 federal election it stood at ~21% nationwide. East Berlin's peripheral districts are also traditionally AfD-affine. Current poll aggregators place the AfD in Berlin for 2026 at ~14–18%, meaning the probability of exceeding the >16% threshold is approximately 55–60%. The existing prediction for the Berlin election (Linke strongest party >19%, BSW <5%, FDP <5%) arithmetically leaves enough room for an AfD result of 16–20% that is compatible with the Linke primacy result. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2025 federal result and Berlin regional polls.

Data basis for this prediction

AfD Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: 9,2 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.2.2023)
AfD Bundestagswahl 2025 national: ~21 % (Bundeswahlleiter, 23.2.2025)
Politico EU Umfrage-Aggregator Berlin LTW 2026: AfD ~14–18 % (Stand 3.9.2026)
Bestehende Vorhersagen: Linke >19 % (stärkste Partei), BSW <5 %, FDP <5 % (selbe Wahl)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen – damit wurde der Schwellenwert von >16,0 % knapp überschritten. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (offizielles Ergebnis), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', statistiken-aktuell.de.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026