Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen win more than 14.0% of votes (confirmed by Berlin electoral officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Current Berlin polls (late August / early September 2026) show Grüne at 15-17%, comfortably above the 14.0% prediction threshold. The Greens have structural strength in Berlin (urban young voters in Pankow, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Charlottenburg). Despite some erosion from the 2023 result of 18.9%, falling below 14% when three independent polls show 15%+ is unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin party results found.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de / wahlrecht.de: Grüne Berlin 15–17% (August/September 2026)
- Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023: Grüne 18,9% (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election, polling section (Aug 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen erzielten bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut Wikipedia und wahlrecht.de 14,3 % der Zweitstimmen. Damit überschritten sie die Schwelle von 14,0 % knapp, aber eindeutig. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. (Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026, wahlrecht.de/news/2026/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2026.html)
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