Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives more than 16.0% of valid votes cast
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls show Die Linke at 19% (INSA, August 7–13, 2026) and 21% (Civey, August 5, 2026)—both well above the 16.0% threshold. Berlin is historically a Die Linke stronghold. The 2021 result was 14.0% (during a period of governing coalition decline); since then polls have recovered significantly. A drop below 16% would require a 3+ percentage point polling error, which is rare in German state elections. No Polymarket market for Berlin available.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Berlin Umfrage: CDU 20 %, Linke 19 %, AfD 17 % (T-Online, 13. August 2026)
- Civey Berlin Umfrage: Linke 21 %, CDU 19 %, AfD 18 % (T-Online, 5. August 2026)
- wahlrecht.de Berlin-Wahltrend (Stand 3. September 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election (Stand 3. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Linke erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut dem Landeswahlleiter Berlin (vorläufiges Ergebnis, veröffentlicht am 21. September 2026 um 02:14 Uhr) 25,7 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 16,0 %. Die Partei wurde damit stärkste Kraft im Parlament. Quellen: berlin.de/wahlen (Pressemitteilung Landeswahlleiter) und Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026'.
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