🏛️ Politics · Next Month

United Russia (Единая Россия) wins more than 300 of 450 seats in the Russian State Duma elections (September 18–20, 2026), confirmed by the Central Election Commission of Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

83%

In the 2021 State Duma elections, United Russia won 324 out of 450 seats (72%). The party exercises near-total control over media, electoral authorities, and candidate registration. Despite economic pressures from sanctions and war costs, state-measured approval sits above 55%. Historically, United Russia has secured a supermajority in all Duma elections since 2003. A result below 300 seats would be a historic outlier requiring extreme political upheaval currently not in evidence. Metaculus consensus: >90% probability of party dominance.

Data basis for this prediction

Staatsduma-Wahl 2021: Единая Россия 324/450 Sitze (CEC Russland, Sept. 2021)
VTsIOM Parteizustimmung Единая Россия 2026: ~56–60 % (VTsIOM, Aug. 2026)
Duma-Wahlen 2026 bestätigt für 18.–20. September (CEC Russland, Ankündigung 2025)
Metaculus: Единая Россия bleibt dominante Partei Sept. 2026 >90 % (Metaculus, Aug. 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Einiges Russland gewann bei den Staatsduma-Wahlen vom 18.–20. September 2026 offiziell 349 von 450 Sitzen (≈77,6 %), weit über der Schwelle von 300. Die Zentrale Wahlkommission (ЦИК) verkündete das Endergebnis am 25. September 2026. Quellen: Meduza (https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/09/25/united-russia-won-349-of-450-seats-in-russia-s-new-state-duma-parliament-will-include-46-war-participants), Radio Svoboda/ЦИК (https://www.svoboda.org/a/tsik-oglasil-itogi-vyborov-u-er-349-mandatov-u-vseh-ostaljnyh-101/33864180.html), Moscow Times (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/25/united-russia-wins-record-state-duma-majority-in-elections-dubbed-as-the-most-uncompetitive-in-modern-history-a93791). Die Vorhersage traf vollständig ein.

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