United Russia (Единая Россия) wins more than 300 of 450 seats in the Russian State Duma elections (September 18–20, 2026), confirmed by the Central Election Commission of Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
In the 2021 State Duma elections, United Russia won 324 out of 450 seats (72%). The party exercises near-total control over media, electoral authorities, and candidate registration. Despite economic pressures from sanctions and war costs, state-measured approval sits above 55%. Historically, United Russia has secured a supermajority in all Duma elections since 2003. A result below 300 seats would be a historic outlier requiring extreme political upheaval currently not in evidence. Metaculus consensus: >90% probability of party dominance.
Data basis for this prediction
- Staatsduma-Wahl 2021: Единая Россия 324/450 Sitze (CEC Russland, Sept. 2021)
- VTsIOM Parteizustimmung Единая Россия 2026: ~56–60 % (VTsIOM, Aug. 2026)
- Duma-Wahlen 2026 bestätigt für 18.–20. September (CEC Russland, Ankündigung 2025)
- Metaculus: Единая Россия bleibt dominante Partei Sept. 2026 >90 % (Metaculus, Aug. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.