🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen pass the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026, confirmed via Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

42%

Current INSA polls (August/September 2026) show Grünen in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at exactly 5% — right at the threshold. This makes the prediction close to a coin flip, priced at slightly below 50%. In eastern Germany, the Greens historically face polling compression: at the 2021 MV state election they received 4.5% and missed entry. East German polls tend to slightly overestimate the Greens. At the same time, the federal trend since the Ampel coalition shows a slightly stabilizing Green core electorate. Net probability: 42%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV: Grüne 5 % (wahlrecht.de / dawum.de, August/September 2026)
MV-Landtagswahl 2021: Grüne 4,5 % – Sperrklausel verpasst (Wikipedia / Landeswahlleiter MV)
t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026, neue Umfrage zeigt SPD-Aufholjagd (August/September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Grünen erhielten bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 5,7 % der Stimmen und überschritten damit klar die 5-%-Sperrklausel. Sie zogen mit 5 Sitzen in den Landtag ein. Die historische Schwäche der Grünen in Ostdeutschland (2021: 4,5 %) trat diesmal nicht ein; die Vorhersage war korrekt. Quellen: Vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis des Landtags MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), Wikipedia (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026), wahlrecht.de (https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2026/landtagswahl-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026.html).

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