🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

90%

BSW polls at just 3.4% per politpro.eu aggregate (as of September 2, 2026) in Berlin — around 1.6 percentage points below the 5% threshold. No recent Berlin poll shows BSW exceeding 4%. Given stable polling underperformance and typical Berlin polling tolerance (±1.5pp, 4 weeks before the election), entry into the Abgeordnetenhaus is very unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin-BSW available.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Berlin Wahltrend 2. Sep 2026: BSW 3,4 % (politpro.eu/de/berlin)
Dawum.de Berlin Sonntagsfrage Aggregat: BSW stabil 3–4 % (alle Umfragen Sep 2026)
Wikipedia: '2026 Berlin state election' — BSW in allen jüngsten Umfragen unter 4 %
Historische Berliner Umfragetoleranz letzte 4 Wochen vor Wahl: ±1,5 pp (2021/2023)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, ZDF heute, wahlrecht.de, kommunalwiki.boell.de) 4,7 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5 %-Sperrklausel. Der Einzug ins Abgeordnetenhaus blieb ihnen verwehrt – die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Allerdings schnitt BSW mit 4,7 % deutlich besser ab als das Umfrageaggregat (3,4 %, Stand 2. Sep 2026) erwarten ließ; das Ergebnis lag rund 1,3 Prozentpunkte über dem prognostizierten Wert, dennoch unterhalb der entscheidenden Hürde. Quellen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026, https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/wahl-berlin-2026-alle-ergebnisse-grafiken-102.html, https://kommunalwiki.boell.de/index.php/Wahlen_in_Berlin_2026

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