🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin House of Representatives election (September 20, 2026): SPD wins more than 12.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

PolitPro trend shows SPD at 12.8%, Infratest-dimap at 13%, Forsa at 15% – polling average ~13.3%. Berlin is historically an SPD stronghold (always above 15% since 1989), even though the party currently ranks 5th in 2026 (behind Linke 20%, CDU 19%, AfD 18%, Grüne 15%). A sub-12% result would be a historically unprecedented Berlin SPD collapse. Risk comes from polling error (±2–3pp) and potential turnout weakness. No exchange market found for this threshold; calibrated at 72%.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Aggregat Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin: SPD 12,8% (Stand 3. September 2026)
Infratest-dimap Umfrage Berlin, 27.–31. August 2026: SPD 13%
Forsa-Umfrage Berlin, August 2026: SPD 15%
Historische Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahlergebnisse SPD 1989–2023: Landeswahlleiter Berlin

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters (bekanntgegeben am 21. September 2026 um 02:14 Uhr) exakt 12,1 % der Zweitstimmen – knapp, aber klar über der Schwelle von 12,0 %. Die Vorhersage ist damit eingetreten. Das Ergebnis war jedoch deutlich schwächer als die Umfragemittelwerte (ca. 13,3 %) und markierte den historischen Tiefpunkt der Berliner SPD, die auf Platz 5 hinter Linke (25,7 %), CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %) und Grünen (14,3 %) landete. Quelle: Landeswahlleiter Berlin (berlin.de/wahlen), bestätigt durch wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026.

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