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All 435 House seats are up for election on November 3, 2026. Historically, the sitting president's party (Republicans, Trump in year 2) loses an average of 25–30 House seats in the first midterm. The Republican House majority post-2024 is slim at ~5–10 seats; a net loss of 5–10 seats would flip the chamber. Polling aggregates (FiveThirtyEight/Metaculus, August 2026) give Democrats ~52–55% odds. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for the House directly verified. Consistent with the open prediction that Republicans retain the Senate – a different chamber with different competitive dynamics.
🏛️ Politics
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Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House (~220 to ~215 seats, 119th Congress). The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025, passed 218-214) contains deeply controversial Medicaid cuts and food assistance reductions — a classic opposition mobilization issue. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 25–30 House seats in midterms (six of the last eight midterms). With only a 5-seat majority, losing just 3 seats flips the chamber. Dampening factors: Republican gerrymandering, incumbency advantages. Note: this prediction refers to the House; Republican Senate majority is captured as a separate existing open prediction. No Polymarket signal for the House specifically available.
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The Texas Senate race is the closest midterm contest: Kalshi has Paxton at 52%, Polymarket narrowly favours Talarico at 51% (as of 10 Sep 2026). Over $10.6M traded on Kalshi. This prediction reflects Paxton's structural advantage in Texas: the state has not elected a Democratic US Senator since 1988. Paxton's edge with rural and conservative voters outweighs Talarico's strong fundraising and lead with independents, Hispanics, and young voters. Polymarket shows 49% for Paxton – a genuine coin-flip; calibrated slightly to Paxton given Texas's historical base.
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Polymarket shows a 'Democratic Sweep' (Democrats control both chambers) at 52% probability (as of September 9, 2026, $11M trading volume). Since a Democratic Senate gain only occurs in the sweep scenario per Polymarket's model, this implies Senate majority probability of ~52%. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) sees the Senate at 50:50. Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held seats; Republicans defend 22 of 35 seats on the ballot, including Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, where recent polls show Democrats in reach. President Trump's ~38% approval and economic conditions favor an elevated midterm counter-vote.
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Wisconsin elects a new governor on November 3, 2026. Tony Evers (D) is constitutionally term-limited after two terms. Wisconsin is a genuine swing state: Biden won it in 2020 by just +0.6%, Evers was re-elected in 2022 by ~+3.4%. Historical midterm patterns under a Republican president (Trump 2nd term) favour Democrats in competitive gubernatorial races (+6–8pp average vs. a normal election). The Milwaukee metro area and college cities (Madison, Green Bay) are demographically shifting toward Democrats. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this specific race; estimate based on structural analysis and midterm dynamics.
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Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats as slight favourites for Senate control (~51% as of early September 2026) — for the first time leading in this cycle. The probability rose ~11 points recently following US military involvement in Iran. Of 35 seats up, Republicans hold 23; Democrats need a net gain of 4. Generic congressional ballot (August 2026): Democrats +8. This prediction is consistent with the open 'Democratic Sweep' and House majority predictions.
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Kalshi markets show Democrats and Republicans at approximately 51%/49% for Senate control — effectively a coin flip (as of approx. July 2026). The seat map is marginally favorable to Democrats: more Republican-held seats in competitive swing states are up for defense. Polymarket and Metaculus place Democrats at 78–84% for the House (a separate open prediction), implying a national wave in their direction — such momentum would have spillover effects in close Senate races. Senate and House outcomes are independent.
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Kalshi prices Democrats at ~51% for Senate majority (September 2026), Polymarket at ~52% — a genuine toss-up. Republicans must defend 26 Senate seats (vs. 9 Democrats); historical midterm headwinds for the governing party favor Democrats. Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa to 'toss-up' on August 20, 2026 (total: 7 toss-up seats including Georgia/Ossoff, Pennsylvania/McCormick seat, Wisconsin/Johnson). In the House, Democrats lead clearly (~85%, separate open prediction), but the Senate map is structurally more favorable for Republicans.
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Polymarket and Kalshi now give Democrats a slight edge for Senate control in 2026: 51% Democrats vs. 49% Republicans (as of July 22, 2026). As recently as June 2026, Republicans led at ~58% on Kalshi. The dramatic reversal reflects escalating Iran/Middle East tensions, a Democratic generic ballot lead, and polling advantages in swing states — Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff holds a clear lead in current polls. 35 Senate seats are up in 2026, 23 currently held by Republicans. This prediction covers the Senate and is separate from the already-open House prediction (also favouring Democrats).
🏛️ Politics
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Polymarket prices the Democratic sweep (both chambers simultaneously) at approximately 51%. Silver Bulletin separately estimates 87% probability for the House and 57% for the Senate. The joint occurrence of both events sits at 51% per prediction markets. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by approximately 6–7 points and are ahead in key Senate races including Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Main risk: historical tendency to overestimate the incumbent president's party in midterm cycles. Polymarket says 51%.
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Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026?' shows a near-dead-heat: Democrats 51%, Republicans ~50% (as of September 2, 2026). GOP defends 22 of its current 53 seats; Democrats need net +4 seats from six genuine tossups (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada). Historically midterms hurt the governing party, but the GOP's 53-seat starting position provides a buffer. Polycopy: 'Divided Government with Republican Senate' as second most probable scenario (35.5%). Note: Complementary to open prediction 'Democrats win House'.
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Republicans currently hold a paper-thin 218:217 majority. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms. Trump's approval ratings stand below 45% following the Iran war, tariffs, and spending cuts. Cook Political Report (July 2026) rates 22 Republican seats as toss-ups; Democrats need a net gain of only 5. The FiveThirtyEight model (July 2026) gives ~51% for a Democratic majority. Counter-factor: Gerrymandering in swing districts structurally limits gain potential. This prediction does not contradict the open Senate prediction (Democrats >50% for Senate).
🏛️ Politics
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In the 2026 US Midterms, 34 Senate seats are contested; Republicans must defend 20, Democrats 14. The historical pattern shows the president's party loses an average of 6 Senate seats in second-term midterms. Trump (second term, in office since January 2025) faces this structural headwind. Polymarket (September 7, 2026) shows a 'Democratic lead in generic ballots and key races'; specific Senate data are not quantified. Structurally, Democrats sit at 47 seats, 3 short of majority — flipping 3 is plausible but uncertain. The existing open prediction covers Democrats in the House; the Senate majority is an independent, additional event.
🏛️ Politics
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Historically, the incumbent president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms (Congressional Research Service); in 18 of 21 midterms since 1934, the governing party lost seats. The ongoing US-Iran military conflict (confirmed NPR, Al Jazeera, September 2026) and economic tensions are likely to generate discontent against the governing party. The existing open Cassandra forecast covers only the Senate (GOP holds majority); the House is uncovered. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical base rate (~65% of midterms result in House flip against governing party) weighed against current political headwinds: ~40%.
🏛️ Politics
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Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net +4 seats to flip control. The 2026 election covers Class 3 senators, including several competitive swing-state seats. Historically the president's party loses an average of 5 Senate seats at midterms; Trump's second term with unpopular tariff policy and social spending cuts may energise voters. No specific Polymarket Senate-control 2026 market available (as of July 17, 2026). Estimate based on historical regression. Distinct from the open prediction 'Democrats win House majority'.
🏛️ Politics
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On 3 November 2026, 34 Senate seats are contested. Polymarket places the probability of Democrats flipping the Senate at approximately 44% (Republicans retain ~56%, $3.2M volume). Clearly distinct from the existing 'Democrats win the House' prediction (Polymarket ~83-86%); Senate and House races historically often decouple. Democrats benefit from anti-Trump fatigue but must defend comparatively more vulnerable seats. This prediction anchors to the Polymarket estimate of ~44% without significant deviation.
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Metaculus assigns Republicans 58.9% probability of holding the most Senate seats – implying ≈41% for Democrats. Structural analysis: Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority and must defend 22 of the 35 contested seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. The NYT recently upgraded Alaska from 'Lean Republican' to 'Tossup'. Democrats lead in North Carolina and Maine; Republicans hold narrow advantages in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. Historical anti-Trump wave effect (the president's party typically loses seats in midterms) could boost chances. Headwind: the Senate map structurally favors Republicans in this specific cycle composition.