Democratic Party wins majority in the US Senate at the 2026 Midterm Elections (at least 51 seats, Election Day November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. October 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Kalshi projects a full Democratic congressional sweep at 64%; Democratic House + Republican Senate at 28%. Implied P(Democratic Senate) ≈ 64% ÷ 92% (Polymarket House) ≈ 70%. Polymarket sees 92.5% for Democrats winning House majority. Kalshi's model projects net seat gains in Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), and through favorable shifts in Nevada and Arizona. Democrats need a net 2–3 seat gain. Polymarket shows $1.99M in 24-hour House-contract volume — deeply liquid, well-calibrated market. Main risk: upset results in individual Senate races (Texas, Montana, Florida) could reverse the swing.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Demokratischer Kongresssweep 64%, Haus + Rep. Senat 28% (Stand 29.10.2026)
- Polymarket: Demokratische Mehrheit US-Repräsentantenhaus 92,5% (Stand 29.10.2026)
- CNBC: Prediction Markets prognostizieren demokratischen Kongresssweep (27.10.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.