Republicans retain their majority in the US House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (confirmed by AP, Reuters, or NYT results coverage)
Kalshi prices Democrats at 78% to win the House majority — implying Republicans retain: ~22%. Current composition: Republicans 218 seats vs. Democrats 215 (as of July 24, 2026, BGOV). Historically the president's party loses House seats in midterms; the razor-thin Republican majority increases flip risk. Counter-factors: GOP gerrymandering in swing districts, potential economic upside. Note: the existing open prediction covers only the Senate (Democrats winning ≥51 seats), not the House. Kalshi sees 78% for Democrats.
22%