US Midterms 2026 (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins Senate majority with at least 51 seats (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
·
Predicted for 3. November 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket shows 60% probability of a Democratic Senate majority after the 2026 Midterms (as of September 16–18, 2026); Kalshi is around 55%. Drivers: Democrats leading in competitive races in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio; voter backlash against the Trump-Republican administration (classic midterm pattern); growing dissatisfaction with Fed rate hikes to 3.75–4% and energy price burden. The result would complement the open Cassandra forecast 'Democrats win US House,' creating a fully Democratic-controlled Congress — historically rare in a party's first midterm, but favored by structural factors in 2026. Forecast anchored to Polymarket's 60% probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026?' – Demokraten 60 %, Republikaner 40 % (Stand 16.09.2026, via covers.com/CNBC)
- Kalshi: US Senate 2026 Mehrheitskontrolle – Demokraten ~55 % (Stand September 2026)
- CNBC: Fed Funds Rate 3,75–4 % nach FOMC 16.09.2026 – politischer Gegenwind für Amtsinhaber
- Cook Political Report: Senate Competitive Races 2026 – NC, ME, OH, TX als Schlüsselrennen (Stand Sept 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.