US Midterms 2026: James Talarico (Democrat) wins the Texas US Senate seat against Ken Paxton (Republican)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket gives James Talarico 62% versus Ken Paxton (40%) for the Texas Senate seat as of September 30, 2026. A Democratic win in Texas would be historic, reflecting demographic shifts in the Austin–Houston–San Antonio–Dallas metro corridor. Paxton is significantly damaged by his 2023 impeachment proceedings and ongoing legal controversies. Metaculus gives Democrats 62% for the Senate majority overall; Polymarket aligns at 62% — Texas is seen as a key component of that majority. Confirmation via AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Texas Senate 2026': Talarico (D) 62 %, Paxton (R) 40 % (Stand 30.09.2026)
- Metaculus '2026 US Midterm Elections': Demokraten Senatsmehrheit 62 % (30.09.2026)
- Polymarket '2026 Midterms – Senate Control': Demokraten 62 % (30.09.2026)
- defirate.com Midterm Odds 2026: Split Congress 36 %, Demo Sweep 39 % (30.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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