Democratic candidate wins the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election (USA) on 3 November 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Incumbent Josh Shapiro won by +14.8pp in 2022 and holds ~58-60% approval. PA governors may serve two consecutive terms; Shapiro's first term ends January 2027. His likely re-election bid and a projected 2026 midterm environment favorable to Democrats (per existing predictions) supports a Democratic victory. Cook Political Report expected to rate 'Likely Democrat'. No active Polymarket market found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Josh Shapiro PA Governor-Wahlsieg 2022: +14,8% über Mastriano (Pennsylvania Secretary of State, 2022)
- Shapiro Zustimmungsrate: ~58–60% (aggregierte Polls, 2026)
- Cook Political Report – PA Governor 2026 Einschätzung erwartet (Cook Political, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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