Republicans win the US Senate majority in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or CNN by election night November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket shows Republicans at 58%, Kalshi at ~67% probability for retaining the Senate majority; weighted average: ~62%. Structural advantages: Republicans currently hold 53 of 100 Senate seats and only need to defend 22 of their 35 seats up for election, while Democrats would need a net gain of 4 seats. More Democrat-held seats in swing states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania) are at risk. Metaculus sees split Congress (R-Senate + D-House) as the most likely single scenario (49%). This prediction is compatible with the open prediction 'Democrats win the House.'
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Republikaner 58 %, Demokraten 43 % für Senatsmehrheit (Stand 1. September 2026)
- Kalshi: Republikaner ~67 % für Senatskontrolle (via 270towin.com, September 2026)
- Metaculus: Geteilter Kongress 49 % Einzelwahrscheinlichkeit (September 2026)
- 270toWin: Aktuelle Sitzverteilung R53–D47 (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.