US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026: Republican Party retains Senate majority (net ≥51 seats, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Metaculus (September 2026) gives Republicans ~59% probability of Senate majority; Polymarket and RealClearPolling confirm ~59–62%. Of 35 seats up for election, Republicans currently hold 53 vs. 47 Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of +4 seats — the Senate map favors Republicans (23 R seats vs. 12 D seats in play). Consistent with open Cassandra prediction 'Democrats win House with ≥6 net seats': a split Congress with Democratic House and Republican Senate is the most likely scenario (Metaculus: 49.2%).
Data basis for this prediction
- Metaculus 'US Senate plurality after 2026 midterms': Republikaner ~59 % (Stand September 2026)
- Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026': ~60 % Republikaner (September 2026)
- 270toWin.com / RealClearPolling Senate Map 2026: Stand September 2026
- Metaculus Congressional Control Scenarios: Rep Senate + Dem House 49,2 % wahrscheinlichstes Szenario
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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