US Midterm Elections 2026 (November 3, 2026): Republican Party retains or wins majority in the US Senate (at least 51 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Metaculus forecasts 59% probability for a Republican Senate majority in 2026. Democrats are simultaneously 86.5% favorites for the House (in existing Cassandra forecasts). The 2026 Senate map has several competitive seats in historically red states, giving Republicans a structural edge. Generic ballot shows Democrats +8 (Polymarket), but Senate maps rarely move 1:1 with national sentiment.
Data basis for this prediction
- Metaculus US Midterms 2026: Republikaner 59% Senatsmehrheit (metaculus.com, Aug. 2026)
- Metaculus US Midterms 2026: Demokraten 86,5% Repräsentantenhaus-Mehrheit (metaculus.com, Aug. 2026)
- Polymarket Generic Congressional Ballot: Demokraten +8 Punkte (polymarket.com, Aug. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.