🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Liberalerna (L) polls at approximately 2.0% in weighted aggregates (politpro.eu, September 1, 2026) — roughly 2 percentage points below the Swedish 4% parliamentary threshold. No Swedish party has recovered from such a deficit in modern elections. No prediction market contracts on this specific question are available; the polling evidence is nonetheless unambiguous.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Sweden Democrats (SD) average approximately 19.2% in weighted polling (politpro.eu, September 1, 2026) — 1.2 points above the 18.0% threshold. With a typical polling margin of ±2pp, the probability of falling below 18.0% is approximately 18–20%. Aggregate bookmaker odds place SD as Sweden's second-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (30.7%). No Polymarket contract on this exact threshold available.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The latest individual poll (Demoskop, Aug 13–24, 2026, n=2,117) shows KD at 8.5% — ~31 projected Riksdag seats, well above the 4% threshold and above the 6.5% prediction level. PolitPro multi-pollster aggregate: 6.7%, also above the threshold. The spread between Demoskop (8.5%) and aggregate (6.7%) warrants a probability below the single-poll reading. KD is part of the Tidö governing coalition (~45.6%, below majority). No direct Polymarket market for KD vote share.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Statistics Sweden poll (June 2026): S + V + MP jointly achieve their own absolute majority without the Centre Party. Current aggregators (PolitPro, August 2026) show the Red-Green bloc ~12 points ahead of the Tidö alliance. Liberals polling at ~2.5%, well below the 4% entry threshold, reducing the Tidö bloc to ~41.5%. Lines.com market: Tidö winning majority below 30%. A S+V+MP outright majority would pave the way for Magdalena Andersson as new Swedish PM. Estimated probability: ~67%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls (Polara, as of July 2026) show Liberalerna (L) at just 1% — far below Sweden's 4% electoral threshold. The party is part of the Tidökoalitionen government (M, SD, KD, L) under PM Ulf Kristersson but has been losing relevance for years. Falling below 4% would deprive the Tidö coalition of its parliamentary majority: the right bloc polls ~44% versus ~47% for the left bloc. About 7 weeks remain until the 13 September election; recovering from 1% to ≥4% would require trebling vote share — historically rare in Swedish short-term polling trends. No Polymarket market for Sweden 2026; own calibration 72%.
🏛️ Politics
Partial Hit
✦ AI
Socialdemokraterna (S) has been Sweden's largest single party in virtually every Riksdag election since 1917. In 2022, S received 30.3% (SD: 20.5%; M: 19.1%). An existing Cassandra prediction forecasts Liberalerna (L) failing the 4% threshold — a sign of erosion in the Tidö coalition bloc (M+SD+KD+L), which relatively strengthens S. No current Polymarket market found for this specific question. 65% reflects S's historical dominance and the uncertainty around the precise vote share.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
France holds parliamentary elections with the decisive second round on September 27, 2026; the first round takes place approximately September 13. In the 2024 legislative elections, RN obtained ~33% in the first round — despite the subsequent 'Front républicain' substantially reducing their seat count. PM Lecornu surviving all no-confidence votes through August 31 (open prediction) indicates ongoing centrist political instability. RN's structural upward trend continues (2022: ~18% → 2024: ~33%). No specific Polymarket contract found for the 2026 French election; IFOP/ELABE polls show RN consistently at 29–35%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls (PolitPro/Novus/Demoskop, July 2026) show the left bloc (S+V+MP+others) at ~47.2% combined, the centre-right bloc (SD, M, KD, L) at ~52.8%. Social Democrats lead individually at 32.2–32.4% (separate open forecast ≥29%), but the right bloc leads in the overall aggregate. A threshold of >50% from a polling level of 52.8% leaves adequate buffer. No direct Polymarket contract found.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current Swedish polls (July 22, 2026) show Socialdemokraterna at 32.4% (PolitPro trend) and 32.2% (Polara 30-day average) — clearly above the 30.0% threshold. At the 2022 Riksdag election they received 30.3%. This prediction complements the open forecast ('bourgeois bloc M+KD+L+SD > 50%') without contradicting it: both scenarios occurred simultaneously in 2022. No Polymarket anchor; calibrated against current polling data.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Latest Novus poll (July 6–19, 2026): SD at 20.4%. SD has grown consistently since the 2018 election (17.5%) and 2022 (20.5%), stable at current levels. Dominant election themes — crime, gang violence, immigration — are SD core issues that continue to mobilize voters. The 19.0% threshold is well below the polling average (20.4%), allowing for a ±2 percentage point polling error buffer. No explicit Kalshi/Polymarket market found; calibrated based on polling range May–July 2026 (19–21%).
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Current polls (August 2026) show the Social Democrats (S) at ~33%; the Moderaterna (M) poll at ~19–21%. The ~12–14 percentage-point gap is structural. The Red-Green opposition bloc leads at 52–55% versus the Tidö governing bloc at 42–46%. Polymarket and Metaculus imply a government change with ~70–75% probability. The existing open prediction reads 'S exceeds 30.0%'; this prediction focuses on the relative ranking (largest single party) – a technically distinct measure that could be true even with a narrow result below 30% if M falls further.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Polymarket prices CDU as the second-placed party at the Saxony-Anhalt state election at 94% (July 22, 2026; volume USD 86,200). Since only AfD or CDU are realistic top-two finishers, this market implies an AfD first-place finish of ~94%. Current polls (Infratest dimap, Forsa) show AfD consistently at 30–33%, CDU at 20–25%, SPD ~15%, all others below. Historically, AfD also led the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election but CDU formed a coalition (CDU+SPD+FDP). Repeating a majority coalition without FDP in 2026 is harder; CDU rules out governing with AfD — this complicates government formation but does not change the election plurality outcome.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Saxony-Anhalt holds its state election on September 6, 2026. Current polls (PolitPro.eu / Statistiken-Aktuell, July 2026) show the AfD at 41.0–41.5% — just short of a Landtag majority (47 of 97 seats). The CDU stands at only 23.8–25.1%, Die Linke at 12.5–13.7%. The outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition falls well short of a majority. No Polymarket data; with a polling base of ~41%, estimated ~65% probability of exceeding the 38% threshold (polling margin of error ±3%).
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Three polls in the period July 30–August 12, 2026 (dawum.de aggregation): CDU averages 22.9% (Pollytix Aug 12: 23%, INSA Aug 10: 22%, Infratest dimap/MDR Jul 30: 24%). The 25% threshold was not reached in any of the three surveys. AfD dominates at ~42%, pushing CDU to second — a loss of ~14 percentage points vs the 2021 result (37.1%). Historical final-poll vs. result deviation for CDU in eastern Germany: typically ±2–3 pp. Even with a maximum +3 pp overperformance, CDU would land at 25–26%; an outcome just above 25% is statistically possible but unlikely. No prediction market available.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls (August 2026) show the Saxony-Anhalt SPD at only 6% – barely above the 5% threshold. The AfD leads at ~43%, CDU at ~22%, Die Linke at ~13%, and BSW sits at exactly 5%. The SPD gained only +1pp recently. If AfD mobilization drives turnout patterns or the SPD slips by just 1pp on election day, the SPD could be shut out of parliament – which would be unprecedented since the state's founding in 1990. BSW sitting at exactly 5% further increases uncertainty (two parties simultaneously at the margin). No Polymarket signal; probability derived from polling proximity to the hurdle.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
BSW is currently polling at 4–5% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6, 2026 election – right at the 5% threshold. According to t-online/dawum.de, BSW is among 'four parties that are in suspense' about clearing the threshold. BSW is already represented in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg state parliaments; Saxony-Anhalt would be a new, more competitive test. Risks: BSW core voters may shift to AfD or Die Linke; campaigning is difficult for a newer party in an AfD-dominated market (AfD 42%). Open predictions for the SA election (AfD >38%, CDU <25%, SPD fails 5%, coalition without AfD) are all fully compatible with BSW entering parliament. No Polymarket market available; calibration based on current polling (BSW 4–5%).
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls (INSA, August 18, 2026) show Die Linke in Saxony-Anhalt at 13.1%, well within Landtag entry range. Unlike Thuringia and Saxony where the BSW split pushed Die Linke below 5%, Die Linke in Saxony-Anhalt appears to be holding its core electorate via social policy profiling. The party scored 11.0% in 2021. Risk: late deciders could shift to AfD or BSW; a collapse from 13.1% to below 10% by election day would be historically unusual. BSW competition is weaker in SA than in other eastern German states.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The FDP polls at just 3% in all current Saxony-Anhalt surveys — well below the 5% threshold. The latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll (25–27 August 2026, n=1,053) confirms this. With AfD (40%), CDU (23%), and Linke (13%) dominating, there is no late-surge scenario visible for the FDP. Structurally weak in eastern Germany, the party has repeatedly missed thresholds in recent Landtag elections. Calibrated failure probability: ~87%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
BSW polls at 3% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the 6 September 2026 election — clearly below the 5% threshold. BSW has been losing national support and has missed parliamentary entry thresholds in several recent state elections. No active prediction market; calibrated probability of failing the threshold: ~82%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
PolitPro election trend (as of September 2, 2026) shows CDU at 22.4%. The most recent individual poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (August 25–27) shows 23.0%. CDU is clearly the second-strongest party, well behind AfD (41.8%). Falling below 20% would require a deviation of more than 3 percentage points from the aggregate — unprecedented in the trend. No existing open prediction addresses the CDU result in Saxony-Anhalt.