Saxony-Anhalt State Election (September 6, 2026): CDU Receives More Than 20.0% of Votes Cast (confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt state returning officer or tagesschau.de)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
·
Predicted for 6. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
PolitPro election trend (as of September 2, 2026) shows CDU at 22.4%. The most recent individual poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (August 25–27) shows 23.0%. CDU is clearly the second-strongest party, well behind AfD (41.8%). Falling below 20% would require a deviation of more than 3 percentage points from the aggregate — unprecedented in the trend. No existing open prediction addresses the CDU result in Saxony-Anhalt.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Wahltrend Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU 22,4%, AfD 41,8% (02.09.2026)
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: CDU 23%, AfD 40%, Die Linke 13%, SPD 9% (25.–27.08.2026)
- dawum.de Sachsen-Anhalt Umfrageaggregat (02.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CDU erzielte nur 16,2–17,5 %, deutlich unter 20,0 %. Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.