🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Current polls (incl. ZDF-Politbarometer Aug 28) put Greens in Saxony-Anhalt at 5–6%, right at the threshold. AfD dominance at 40–43% may encourage tactical voting toward smaller democratic parties. No prediction market available; estimate based on polling average of ~5.5% and ±1–2pp election-day swing typical for state elections. The risk of failing the threshold is real.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All current polls place the SPD 2–4 points above the 5% threshold: INSA (Aug 26–Sep 1, 2026): 7%; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF (Aug 28): 9%; PolitPro trend (Sep 2): 7.6%. A last-minute swing exceeding 3 points is historically very rare without a major media event. BSW (3–4%) and FDP (3%) do not absorb significant SPD voters. Die Linke (12%) competes in a different voter segment. No structural risk signal visible.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (August 2026) shows AfD at 40%, CDU 23%, Linke 13%, SPD 9%, Greens 6%, FDP and BSW at 3% each (wahlrecht.de, dawum.de). All recent polls place AfD stably between 38 and 41%. Polling underperformance of more than 3 percentage points would be historically unusual for AfD in state elections. The 37% threshold leaves a ~3-point safety buffer. Confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt electoral authority or tagesschau.de by September 6, 2026.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The 2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election saw 60.4% turnout (2016: 61.1%). The 2026 election is marked by strong AfD performance (open prediction: >37%), a 15-party field, and high political polarization. ARD/Infratest dimap anticipates elevated mobilization in AfD strongholds and among counter-blocs. The 57.0% threshold sits clearly below both previous elections and should be comfortably exceeded — only strict urban apathy could weigh on turnout.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Die Linke does not appear above the 5% threshold in any current Saxony-Anhalt polling (wahlrecht.de, dawum.de, as of August 2026). Nationally, the party has collapsed to fringe-party levels since the 2025 federal election; in Saxony-Anhalt, where they reached 5.9% in 2021, they have structurally lost voters to AfD and SPD. Current polls show AfD (>40%), CDU (22-23%), SPD, and Greens — Die Linke does not appear as a measurable force. Without the alternative three-direct-seat rescue clause and no measurable polling above 4%, failure is the base expectation.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
BSW polls at 3.9% in the aggregated PolitPro election trend for Saxony-Anhalt (end of August 2026) — well below the 5% threshold. The party has struggled with declining national polls and structural build-up deficits in eastern Germany since its founding in 2024. A mid-August individual poll briefly showed 5%, but the aggregate trend is clearly below. Historically, election outcomes in German federal states rarely deviate more than ±1.5 points from the polling trend; for BSW, entering parliament would require +1.1 points above the trend. No Polymarket market for BSW Saxony-Anhalt. The open Cassandra forecast for BSW in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a separate election and is not affected.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The FDP polls at approximately 4% in Saxony-Anhalt according to Infratest dimap (August 6, 2026) and 3.2% in the PolitPro aggregate. The federal party is politically weakened after the coalition dispute and collapse of the Ampel coalition; eastern Germany is its weakest terrain. At the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the FDP entered parliament with 6.4%; since then, the party has lost massive support nationwide. Even at the more favorable poll (4% in Infratest), clearing the 5% threshold (+1 point surprise) is historically possible but unlikely. No Polymarket market available. For the FDP to enter parliament, it would need significant late mobilization — very unlikely given no shy-voter effect for the FDP in Saxony-Anhalt.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
In the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, CDU under Minister-President Reiner Haseloff won 37.1%. Since then, the AfD has surged massively and is forecast above 37% in 2026. Eastern Germany comparison: Saxony 2024 CDU 31.9%, Thuringia 2024 CDU 23.6%. Saxony-Anhalt is structurally more CDU-friendly than Thuringia and Haseloff's incumbency advantage is stabilising. The 30% threshold is plausible but not secure — a collapse to 25–29% following the Thuringian pattern is possible.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
INSA September 2–3, 2026 shows AfD at 43%, PolitPro trend at 42.0%. The Cassandra prediction '>37%' is near certain; the question is whether AfD exceeds 40% in a major state for the first time. No specific prediction market price for '>40%' available; calibration: poll average 42% ±3 pp uncertainty band yields approximately 58% probability.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The Greens are structurally weak in East Germany. In the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election they barely cleared 5.9%. Since then, they lost support sharply: Thuringia 2024: 3.2% (eliminated), Brandenburg 2024: 4.1% (eliminated), federal 2025 election in eastern constituencies well below 5%. Current polls for Saxony-Anhalt consistently show the Greens below 4%. No Polymarket contract; structural analogy to Thuringia/Brandenburg supports high probability.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The SPD polls at 7.4% ahead of the Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026) according to politpro.eu (as of September 3, 2026). Even with a typical polling error of ±2–3 percentage points, the party is expected to remain above the 5% threshold. The 5.5% bar sits 1.9 points below the poll average — under a normal distribution N(7.4; 2²), the probability of >5.5% is approximately 83%. SPD candidate Armin Willingmann enjoys regional recognition. No Polymarket market for this specific result.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Historical turnout: 2021 60.4%; 2016 61.1%. Current PolitPro polling: AfD 42%, CDU 22.3%, SPD 7.4% – record-level polarisation. Both AfD voter mobilisation and civil-society anti-AfD campaigns are likely to sustain participation. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found; calibration based on historical comparables.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls (Infratest dimap / DAWUM, as of August–September 2026) put The Left at 13% in Saxony-Anhalt. In 2021 they got 11.0% there. Eastern Germany remains a structurally stronger base than the national average (~4–5%). A result above 10% is well supported by polls — the margin above the threshold is ~3 percentage points. Risk: AfD mobilisation could draw votes away. No direct prediction market anchor.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) stands at just 4.0% in the DAWUM average of four current surveys (26 Aug–3 Sep 2026, n=5,055) and 3% in the ZDF Politbarometer (28 Aug 2026). With a gap of at least one percentage point to the five-percent threshold, the party lacks critical mass even with late mobilisation. All individual polls over the past four weeks show BSW consistently below the threshold.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The CDU stands at 22.6% in the DAWUM aggregate (as of 3 Sep 2026) and 23% in the ZDF Politbarometer (28 Aug 2026). The 20.0% prediction threshold is 2.6 percentage points below the poll average — even a strong AfD pull effect would barely drag the CDU below this mark. CDU voters in Saxony-Anhalt are considered comparatively stably mobilised; a result below 20% would be a historical exception.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
In East German state elections in 2024, the AfD received 32.8% in Thuringia and 29.2% in Brandenburg. Saxony-Anhalt was a CDU stronghold in 2021 (CDU 37.1%, AfD 20.8%), but since then the AfD has gained massively at national and East German level. Current polls for Saxony-Anhalt 2026 suggest an AfD result in the 29–36% range. An existing prediction sets the CDU threshold at >20%, indicating a significant CDU decline. Exceeding the 33% mark would represent the AfD's strongest state result in Saxony-Anhalt to date, significantly complicating coalition negotiations for CDU Minister-President Haseloff. No direct Polymarket odds; calibrated from Thuringia/Brandenburg data points and poll aggregators.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All current polls show the AfD clearly in first place with 41–43%, roughly 19 percentage points ahead of the CDU (22–23%). PolitPro aggregate (Sept. 5): AfD 41.7%, CDU 22.5%; INSA (Sept. 1): 43%/22%; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sept. 3): 41%/23%. The AfD would thereby become the strongest faction in a German state parliament for the first time. No government participation is planned (firewall of all other parties), but as the largest party it earns the right to initiate coalition soundings. No prediction market price available; own calibration based on consolidated polls: 95%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The FDP is polling at approximately 3% in Saxony-Anhalt (wahlrecht.de, dawum.de, as of August 2026) — far below the 5% threshold. Structurally weak in eastern German states since the 2025 federal election collapse, the party has no regional mobilisation base. wahlrecht.de no longer tracks the FDP separately in SA. Entry to parliament is practically ruled out; implied probability from polling data exceeds 88%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current Saxony-Anhalt polls (dawum.de, wahlrecht.de, August 2026) list the Greens alongside BSW and FDP as 'threshold risk' parties. In eastern German states, the Greens consistently underperform national averages; in 2021 they scraped through with 5.9% in SA. Since then, the party has lost substantially at federal and state level. Current polling near or below 5% makes failure more likely than success.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
In the 2021 state election, the SPD received 8.4% in Saxony-Anhalt. Pre-election polls for 2026 show the party at 8–11%, supported by a moderate federal SPD recovery since the 2025 electoral defeat. Since FDP, Greens, and BSW are expected (per existing forecasts) to miss the 5% threshold, their voters only marginally benefit the SPD. Nevertheless, a result above 8% is structurally likely: the SPD holds a stable, if small, base in conservative Saxony-Anhalt historically. No market odds available; calibrated on 2021 result and aggregators.