🏛️ Politics · Next Month

France: Rassemblement National (RN, Marine Le Pen / Jordan Bardella) obtains more than 30% of votes cast in the first round of the legislative election (~September 13, 2026, confirmed by French Ministry of the Interior)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

France holds parliamentary elections with the decisive second round on September 27, 2026; the first round takes place approximately September 13. In the 2024 legislative elections, RN obtained ~33% in the first round — despite the subsequent 'Front républicain' substantially reducing their seat count. PM Lecornu surviving all no-confidence votes through August 31 (open prediction) indicates ongoing centrist political instability. RN's structural upward trend continues (2022: ~18% → 2024: ~33%). No specific Polymarket contract found for the 2026 French election; IFOP/ELABE polls show RN consistently at 29–35%.

Data basis for this prediction

RN Parlamentswahl 2024, 1. Wahlgang: ~33,2% der Stimmen (Innenministerium Frankreich, 30.6.2024)
Frankreich Parlamentswahl September 2026 (Category:2026 elections, Wikipedia, bestätigt)
Lecornu übersteht Misstrauensanträge bis 31.8.2026 (offene Vorhersage Cassandra.news)
IFOP/ELABE: RN bei 29–35% in Frankreich 2026 (Umfrage-Metaanalyse, Schätzung)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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