Saxony-Anhalt State Election (6 September 2026): SPD Fails to Clear the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter the State Parliament (confirmed by the State Returning Officer)

Current polls (August 2026) show the Saxony-Anhalt SPD at only 6% – barely above the 5% threshold. The AfD leads at ~43%, CDU at ~22%, Die Linke at ~13%, and BSW sits at exactly 5%. The SPD gained only +1pp recently. If AfD mobilization drives turnout patterns or the SPD slips by just 1pp on election day, the SPD could be shut out of parliament – which would be unprecedented since the state's founding in 1990. BSW sitting at exactly 5% further increases uncertainty (two parties simultaneously at the margin). No Polymarket signal; probability derived from polling proximity to the hurdle.