Kristdemokraterna (KD, Sweden) wins more than 6.5% of votes cast in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The latest individual poll (Demoskop, Aug 13–24, 2026, n=2,117) shows KD at 8.5% — ~31 projected Riksdag seats, well above the 4% threshold and above the 6.5% prediction level. PolitPro multi-pollster aggregate: 6.7%, also above the threshold. The spread between Demoskop (8.5%) and aggregate (6.7%) warrants a probability below the single-poll reading. KD is part of the Tidö governing coalition (~45.6%, below majority). No direct Polymarket market for KD vote share.
Data basis for this prediction
- Demoskop Umfrage 13.–24. Aug 2026: KD 8,5 % (~31 Sitze) (PolitPro, 24. August 2026)
- PolitPro Trend-Aggregat: KD 6,7 % (politpro.eu, Stand 1. September 2026)
- Wikipedia: Opinion polling 2026 Swedish election – Tidö-Koalition ~45,6 %
- Valmyndigheten: Sperrklausel 4 % für Riksdag-Einzug (schwedisches Wahlrecht)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.