🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Kristdemokraterna (KD, Sweden) wins more than 6.5% of votes cast in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

The latest individual poll (Demoskop, Aug 13–24, 2026, n=2,117) shows KD at 8.5% — ~31 projected Riksdag seats, well above the 4% threshold and above the 6.5% prediction level. PolitPro multi-pollster aggregate: 6.7%, also above the threshold. The spread between Demoskop (8.5%) and aggregate (6.7%) warrants a probability below the single-poll reading. KD is part of the Tidö governing coalition (~45.6%, below majority). No direct Polymarket market for KD vote share.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop Umfrage 13.–24. Aug 2026: KD 8,5 % (~31 Sitze) (PolitPro, 24. August 2026)
PolitPro Trend-Aggregat: KD 6,7 % (politpro.eu, Stand 1. September 2026)
Wikipedia: Opinion polling 2026 Swedish election – Tidö-Koalition ~45,6 %
Valmyndigheten: Sperrklausel 4 % für Riksdag-Einzug (schwedisches Wahlrecht)

Verdict: Miss

Kristdemokraterna erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Valmyndigheten-Ergebnissen (alle 6.626 Wahlbezirke ausgezählt) ca. 6,1–6,2 % der Stimmen und 22 Riksdag-Sitze. Das liegt unter der Schwelle von 6,5 %. Der SVT-Valun (exit poll) wies 6,1 % aus, das amtliche Endergebnis 6,2 % (395.880 Stimmen). Ursache des Misses: Der Demoskop-Einzelpoll (8,5 %) überschätzte KD deutlich; das PolitPro-Aggregat (6,7 %) lag zwar näher, aber ebenfalls leicht über dem tatsächlichen Ergebnis. KD verbesserte sich zwar gegenüber 2022 (5,3 %), blieb aber knapp unter der gesetzten Schwelle. Quellen: SVT Valresultat 2026 (valresultat.svt.se/2026), Valmyndigheten (val.se/english/election-results/…/election-results-2026), SVT-Senaste nytt om val 2026.

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