Saxony-Anhalt State Election (6 September 2026): BSW fails to cross 5% threshold
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
BSW polls at 3% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the 6 September 2026 election — clearly below the 5% threshold. BSW has been losing national support and has missed parliamentary entry thresholds in several recent state elections. No active prediction market; calibrated probability of failing the threshold: ~82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Sachsen-Anhalt Aug 2026: BSW 3%
- wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm (Stand 2. September 2026)
- T-Online – Wahlumfrage Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: Trendübersicht
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BSW erhielt 5,0–5,1 % und überschritt die 5%-Sperrklausel (zog in den Landtag ein). Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
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