Saxony-Anhalt State Election (6 September 2026): BSW fails to cross 5% threshold
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
BSW polls at 3% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the 6 September 2026 election — clearly below the 5% threshold. BSW has been losing national support and has missed parliamentary entry thresholds in several recent state elections. No active prediction market; calibrated probability of failing the threshold: ~82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Sachsen-Anhalt Aug 2026: BSW 3%
- wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm (Stand 2. September 2026)
- T-Online – Wahlumfrage Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: Trendübersicht
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BSW erhielt 5,0–5,1 % und überschritt die 5%-Sperrklausel (zog in den Landtag ein). Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.