🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 19.0% of votes cast in the Swedish Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

Latest Novus poll (July 6–19, 2026): SD at 20.4%. SD has grown consistently since the 2018 election (17.5%) and 2022 (20.5%), stable at current levels. Dominant election themes — crime, gang violence, immigration — are SD core issues that continue to mobilize voters. The 19.0% threshold is well below the polling average (20.4%), allowing for a ±2 percentage point polling error buffer. No explicit Kalshi/Polymarket market found; calibrated based on polling range May–July 2026 (19–21%).

Data basis for this prediction

Novus-Umfrage 6.–19. Juli 2026: SD 20,4% – Wikipedia 'Opinion polling for 2026 Swedish general election'
SD historischer Trend: 17,5% (2018), 20,5% (2022), 20,4% (Juli 2026) – Valmyndigheten
Wahltermin: Frühabstimmung ab 26. Aug., Hauptwahl 13. Sep. 2026 – Riksdagen.se

Verdict: Miss

Die Sweden Democrats (SD) erhielten bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (val.se) 17,48 % der Stimmen (62 Sitze) – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 19,0 %. Das Ergebnis entspricht einem Rückgang von ca. 3 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2022 (20,5 %). Die Umfragen (Novus Juli 2026: 20,4 %) überschätzten die SD systematisch; der tatsächliche Umfragefehler betrug rund –3 Prozentpunkte, was den einkalkulierten Puffer von ±2 Prozentpunkten überstieg. Quellen: Valmyndigheten (val.se/election-results-2026), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', SVT Nyheter Valresultat 2026.

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