📈 Economy · Next Month

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of ~$1.66 per share (July 27, 2026, before market open)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

57%

UPS reports before US market open on July 27, 2026. Consensus EPS: $1.66; consensus revenue: $21.81B. Analysts have revised revenue estimates up 2.85% over three months; 72% of 34 covering analysts carry a buy rating. Q2 2026 is the critical inflection point for UPS's cost reduction program after the Amazon volume step-down. Nearshoring effects from US tariffs and e-commerce recovery support a modest beat. No Polymarket odds.

Data basis for this prediction

UPS Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens 1,66 USD; Umsatz 21,81 Mrd. USD (MarketBeat/Yahoo Finance, Stand 19.07.2026)
UPS Earnings Date: 27. Juli 2026, vor Marktöffnung (MarketBeat)
72 % Buy-Ratings, 34 Analysten; Umsatz +2,85 % revidiert (Yahoo Finance, Stand 19.07.2026)
UPS 2026 cost reduction program; Amazon glide-down abgeschlossen (UPS IR Q1 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

UPS meldete am 28. Juli 2026 (vor Marktöffnung) ein bereinigtes EPS von 1,76 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von 1,66 USD klar um ca. 6 %. Auch der Umsatz von 22,8 Mrd. USD lag deutlich über dem erwarteten Konsens von 21,81 Mrd. USD. Zusätzlich hob UPS die Jahresprognose auf 91,2 Mrd. USD Umsatz und 7,22 USD bereinigtes EPS an. Trotz des Beats fiel die Aktie ~6 % im Vorhandel wegen hoher Restrukturierungskosten (891 Mio. USD nach Steuern) und einer schwachen Q3-Umsatzprognose. Quellen: Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ups-q2-2026-earnings-beat-112032472.html), Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/ups-beats-q2-estimates-raises-fullyear-outlook-4816024), StockTitan (https://www.stocktitan.net/news/UPS/ups-releases-2q-2026-9rnxjwir2j85.html)

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026