💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Polymarket assigns 78% probability that Anthropic reaches ≥USD 1.5 trillion market cap, and 90% for an IPO by October 31 (Polymarket volume ~USD 25M). Anthropic filed its S-1 on 1 June 2026 and is targeting an October IPO at ~USD 2 trillion; annualised revenue run rate is reported at ~USD 47 billion. Combined probability (IPO occurs AND valuation >1.5T) is ~70%; own estimate 65% (discount for market volatility and dilution risk). The existing open prediction covers only the IPO event, not the valuation level.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
KB Securities forecasts Samsung Electronics a record full-year 2026 operating profit of 64.2 trillion KRW — the highest since 2018 (a 20% upward revision). Samsung already beat estimates in Q2 2026 (CNBC, July 30, 2026). With a full-year target of 64 trillion KRW and a strong Q2, the implied Q3 quarter is ~14–17 trillion KRW (prior year Q3 2025: 9.18 trillion KRW). Three drivers: (1) HBM3E/HBM4 demand from AI data centers (NVIDIA, AMD) continues to grow; (2) DRAM price cycle has recovered and is rising since Q4 2025; (3) Samsung Display ships OLED panels for iPhone 18 Pro/Ultra at record volume. No Polymarket or Metaculus contract covers Samsung's Q3 2026 result. Risk: HBM4 qualification delays or trade tensions could dampen results.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Apple reported Q4 FY2025 (iPhone launch quarter, Jul–Sep 2025) net revenue of ~$94.9B – a record for the September quarter. Q4 FY2026 encompasses the iPhone 18 launch window: open platform predictions confirm iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max announced September 9, 2026 as the only fall models, implying elevated ASP. Services growth of ~10–15% YoY adds incremental revenue. The $100B threshold requires ~+5.4% growth vs. Q4 FY2025 record – ambitious but plausible. No Polymarket market found for Apple Q4 FY2026.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus for at least 12 consecutive quarters (average beat: ~5–7%). Growth drivers: Azure cloud +28–32% YoY, powered by AI monetization (GitHub Copilot, Microsoft 365 Copilot, Azure OpenAI). Q1 FY2027 consensus implied at ~$3.40–3.50 Non-GAAP EPS; MSFT's beat frequency implies >65% probability. Risks: USD strength weighs on international revenue, enterprise IT budget slowdown. No existing platform forecast on MSFT.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Amazon has consistently beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus over the past six quarters, primarily driven by AWS growth (historically >20% YoY) and structurally improved retail margins. Dell Technologies beat on September 1, 2026 with EPS +43% above consensus, underscoring broad tech earnings momentum in the current AI cycle. For Amazon: AWS Bedrock and custom chip investments strengthen pricing power and margins. ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 54.6 (expansion) signals continued healthy investment environment for cloud services. Historical EPS beat rate AMZN: ~72% of the last 8 quarters.
💻 Technology
Partial Hit
✦ AI
Meta has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus for ten consecutive quarters (FactSet). Q2 FY2026 (Aug 2026): adjusted EPS $8.33 vs. consensus $7.94 — a beat of +$0.39. Drivers: AI-powered Advantage+ ad booking system, growing Reels monetization, and disciplined cost management after the 'Year of Efficiency'. Bloomberg's seasonally adjusted consensus for Q3 is approx. $7.80–8.20 (mild advertising seasonality drag). FactSet ranks Meta as a top-5 EPS beater over the past eight quarters. Risk: EU Digital Markets Act fines, cyclical ad budget cuts.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Azure grew 43% YoY in Q4 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2026) and crossed the $100B annual run-rate for the first time (CNBC, 29 Jul 2026). Microsoft guided ~45% growth in constant currency for Q1 FY2027 (MLQ Research). The '>44%' prediction sits just below official guidance, betting on a solid if not spectacular beat. Risk: GPU capacity constraints and FX headwinds could compress reported growth. No direct Polymarket market for this partial metric. Own estimate ~62% based on guidance and historical Azure guidance accuracy.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
AWS has shown clear growth acceleration in recent quarters: Q3 2024 +19%, Q4 2024 +19%, Q1 2025 +17%, Q2 2025 +19%, Q3 2025 ~20% (est.). The AI-infrastructure boom (hyperscaler demand, training clusters, inference) drives 2026 data-centre uptake. Amazon announced $100B+ capex for 2026. Competitors Azure (>30%) and GCP (~28%) growing faster — structural pressure on AWS to sustain 20%+. S&P 500 at 7,712 on Sept. 7, 2026 (Nasdaq tech sector remains resilient). No Polymarket/Metaculus contract specifically for AWS found; trend-based estimate ~64%.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Meta reported Q2 2026 revenue of $60.80bn (+28% YoY), with advertising revenue of $59.36bn (+27%). Q3 2026 guidance is $61–64bn (approx. 1% FX headwind). With estimated Q3 2025 comparable revenue of $48–50bn, guidance implies ~24–33% YoY growth. AI-driven ad optimisation, Instagram growth (2bn daily actives), and Threads (500m monthly actives) sustain momentum. A miss below 22% would be a severe negative outlier relative to guidance.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Apple reports its Q4 FY2026 results (fiscal year-end) on October 29, 2026. Q3 FY2026 (April–June) Services already reached USD 30.74B (+12% YoY, confirmed by SEC filing). Q4 FY2025 Services was ~USD 24.97B; at +14% YoY growth for Q4 FY2026 = ~USD 28.5B. Drivers: App Store, iCloud+, Apple TV+, Apple Intelligence subscriptions. No direct prediction market. Services growth rate was consistently 12–14% YoY throughout FY2026.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for Apple Q4 FY2026 stands at $114.96 billion (26 estimates, Yahoo Finance/Nasdaq, as of September 2026). Drivers: iPhone 18 (shipping from 18 September provides ~2 weeks of Q4 sales), resilient Services segment (Apple Intelligence monetisation), Mac/iPad demand recovery. The $108B threshold sits ~6.4% below consensus — a wide safety margin. Apple has consistently beaten consensus in recent quarters. No Polymarket market available; calibration based on analyst consensus (Nasdaq/Yahoo Finance). No investment recommendation implied.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
AWS has emerged as Amazon's key growth engine in 2025–2026 amid the AI infrastructure boom. The already open Cassandra forecast for AWS Q4 FY2026 (October–December, published February 2027) sets a >35% threshold; the preceding Q3 (July–September) could be even stronger as GenAI enterprise workloads continue scaling. AWS growth was ~33–36% YoY in late 2025; enterprise AI infrastructure migrations could push Q3 2026 to 37–42%. No direct Polymarket market available.
💻 Technology
Partial Hit
✦ AI
AMD reported Q2 FY2026 record revenue of $11.5B (+50% YoY), driven by AI data centres: Data Center segment at $6.7B (+107% YoY, Instinct MI400). Q3 2025 was $9.25B; scaling +30% YoY gives ~$12.0B for Q3 2026. AMD continues to gain AI training chip share; Azure and Meta AI infrastructure use AMD Instinct. Gaming remains weak (−31% YoY in Q2). No existing Cassandra prediction covers AMD earnings.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft achieved Azure growth of 43% (constant currency) in Q4 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2026), significantly beating the ~40% consensus. For Q1 FY2027 (Jul–Sep 2026), management officially guided ~45% CC growth. Azure crossed $100bn annualised revenue for the first time; management emphasised 'demand exceeding supply' – a classic beat indicator. Analysts on Seeking Alpha view ~45% midpoint guidance as conservative, as the Capex boom ($255–260bn FY2027) and Copilot monetisation deliver momentum. The >45% threshold means beating guidance; historically Microsoft Azure exceeds its guidance in roughly 55–60% of quarters.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Alphabet has beaten the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 11 of the last 12 quarters (~90% beat rate). Structural growth drivers remain AI-powered Google Search revenue, YouTube advertising, and Google Cloud, which has been expanding strongly. No known short-term regulatory interventions (e.g. DOJ search divestiture order) scheduled for H2 2026 that would structurally impair Q3 EPS. No direct Polymarket market available; historical base rate ~72%. Google Cloud double-digit growth continues.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus for at least 15 consecutive quarters (FactSet/Bloomberg, as of Q4 FY2026). Azure growth is driven by AI demand (Copilot, OpenAI partnership); CEO Satya Nadella signalled strong pipeline demand on the Q4 FY2026 earnings call. MSFT's historical EPS beat rate stands at ≥80% over the last five fiscal years. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found; calibrated on historical beat rate and consensus dynamics. Purely an event and earnings forecast — no investment recommendation.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Apple reported Q3 FY2026 (April–June 2026) revenue of approx. USD 108–110 billion at 14–17% YoY growth (iPhone 17 cycle, Apple Intelligence). Extrapolating to the full fiscal year yields an FY2026 revenue estimate of roughly USD 440–465 billion (vs. ~USD 391 billion in FY2025). The USD 450 billion threshold implies ~15% full-year growth. Risks: China demand softness, US tariffs on China-made devices, stagflationary US consumer environment (PCE 3.7%). High-margin Services revenue (~29%+ margin) structurally cushions hardware weakness.
💻 Technology
Partial Hit
✦ AI
Apple beat the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in each of the last 12 consecutive quarters (Q1 FY2023 – Q4 FY2025) per Bloomberg. Q4 FY2026 (July–September 2026) benefits from the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Ultra launch period (announcement September 9, 2026), which typically generates strong pre-order and first-delivery volumes. iPhone Ultra as a high-price ASP driver (~$1,999+) should boost margins. CEO transition to John Ternus (September 1, 2026) creates short-term PR uncertainty but doesn't change Apple's structural earnings power. Historical AAPL Non-GAAP EPS beat rate: ~84% (2018–2025). No explicit Polymarket market available.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Alphabet beat Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 9 of the last 10 quarters. Google Search benefits from AI-enhanced search (AI Overviews), Google Cloud grows >25% YoY gaining AI infrastructure share, YouTube ad revenue recovering. Alphabet is not in existing predictions. No Polymarket market for Q3 2026 EPS; historical ~90% beat rate anchors the estimate. Reduced to 73% for structural search market risk from AI assistants.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus for more than 20 consecutive quarters. AI-driven Azure growth (Copilot licences, OpenAI integration) stabilises and accelerates the cloud segment. All five comparable Big-Tech predictions on the Cassandra platform (Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia) expect EPS beats — Microsoft follows the same pattern as the enterprise cloud and AI market leader. Analyst consensus Non-GAAP EPS Q1 FY2027 (Jul–Sep 2026): approximately $3.38–3.44 per share. No specific Polymarket market for MSFT Q1 FY2027 found.