💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Bloomberg analyst consensus for Alphabet Q3 FY2026 stands at $126.9B (+24% YoY). Own estimate sets the threshold at $124.0B — $2.9B below consensus. At an estimate standard deviation of ~$4–5B, this implies a ~72% probability of exceeding $124.0B. Growth drivers: Google Cloud (estimates revised up +10.9% after Q2 beat), Search with Gemini integration, and YouTube streaming. Risks: EU DMA proceedings and potential US DOJ remedies — but no material revenue impact expected for Q3 2026 specifically. Polymarket sieht keinen direkten Markt für diesen Schwellenwert; Konsens-Anker ist Bloomberg bei 126,9 Mrd. USD.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Meta provided Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance of $61.0–64.0 billion at the Q2 FY2026 earnings call (July 2026); analyst consensus per MarketScreener is $63.3 billion (+18–20% YoY based on Q3 2025 actual of $40.6 billion). The $63.0 billion threshold sits below consensus but clearly above the guidance midpoint ($62.5 billion). AI advertising (Advantage+ Campaigns, Llama 4-based targeting) and Instagram Reels monetization provide structural tailwinds. Meta beats analyst consensus in ~65–70% of quarters historically. Own calibration: 58%.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
AMD issued Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance of $13.0B (±$300M); the analyst consensus (LSEG) is $12.52B. The gap between own guidance and consensus reflects uncertainty about the ramp of MI350/successor AI chips. AMD needs to hit or slightly beat its own guidance midpoint to deliver >$13.0B. Historically AMD has met or exceeded its own guidance midpoint in 6 of the last 8 quarters. NVDA stock above $210 signals persistently strong data center demand. No prediction market available.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus (38 analysts, Yahoo Finance, as of September 21, 2026) projects Alphabet Q3 FY2026 revenue at $127.3B (+24.4% YoY). The most bearish analyst estimate is $123.4B. The $126.0B threshold represents a ~1% conservative discount to consensus. Alphabet first crossed $100B in Q3 2025 ($102.4B); Google Cloud is growing ~35% YoY per Visible Alpha. No Polymarket market available; calibrated from analyst consensus distribution (std dev ~$2.9B, z≈-0.45 → P≈67%).
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus for Microsoft Q1 FY2027 (July–September 2026) stands at USD 90.59 billion in revenue. Microsoft has beaten consensus estimates in six consecutive quarters by an average of 5–6% (most recently Q4 FY2026: EPS USD 4.74 vs USD 4.47 consensus, +6.1%). At a similar beat rate, the implied actual revenue is around USD 95 billion. The threshold of USD 93.0 billion is 2.6% above consensus and well below a typical beat — leaving substantial margin of safety. Azure growth (+32–35% YoY per analyst models) and Copilot subscription expansion are the key drivers. No Polymarket contract found.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Apple's fiscal year ends September 30; Q4 results are typically reported in late October. Q4 FY2024 total revenue was $94.9B; Q4 FY2025 is estimated at ~$97–99B (+3–4% YoY). Exceeding $100B in Q4 FY2026 requires only ~+1–3% YoY growth vs. FY2025. The iPhone 18 launch falls in this quarter (typically: last 2–3 weeks of September), contributing launch-volume revenue. Apple Services (+12% YoY estimated) and Wearables provide structural growth support. Risks: strong USD (12-month change: -2.7% for EUR/USD), Huawei competition in China. No direct Polymarket market; implied from Apple's growth trend and analyst consensus: ~57%.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus (Visible Alpha/S&P Global, as of Sept 26, 2026) projects Alphabet Q3 2026 at $126.9B (+24% YoY). Drivers: Google Cloud with revised Q3 estimates +10.9% and FY estimates +9.3%, resilient YouTube advertising, growing AI monetization in Search (AI Overviews) and Workspace. FY2026 consensus stands at $497.9B. The $125.0B threshold sits 1.5% below consensus — only a meaningful revenue miss (FX headwinds, Cloud slowdown) would cause failure. No comparable open GOOGL prediction exists in the catalog. Polymarket sieht keinen direkten Markt zu diesem Ereignis.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus per Visible Alpha/Plus500 (end-September 2026): Q3 2026 total revenue ~$126.9 billion (+24% YoY). The $126.0B threshold sits ~$900M below consensus. Google Cloud estimates were raised 10.9% ahead of the release (FY 2026 Cloud revenues revised up 9.3%). Alphabet beat consensus in Q2 2026 (CNBC, July 22, 2026). AI-powered search (AI Overviews) and YouTube advertising continue to drive ad revenues. No Polymarket level available for this specific threshold. Calibration: ~68%, accounting for typical deviations from consensus.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Alphabet reported Google Cloud revenue of $24.8 billion for Q2 2026 on July 22, 2026 (+82% YoY). For Q3 revenue above $26.0 billion, sequential quarterly growth of approximately 4.8% is sufficient. The AI infrastructure investment wave (Alphabet raised capex guidance after Q2 2026) and the structural demand surge visible across cloud peers support continued momentum. JP Morgan raised its Alphabet price target materially after Q2 results. No Polymarket market; independent assessment: 62%.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Alphabet beat the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 14 of the past 16 quarters (87.5% beat rate, Bloomberg/FactSet). Google Cloud grew ~28% YoY in Q2 2026. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 26,402 on August 29, 2026 (–0.52%), indicating an overall positive valuation environment for tech. The Non-GAAP EPS consensus for Q3 FY2026 is estimated at approximately $2.10–2.20 per share (Bloomberg extrapolation). No Polymarket market for Alphabet Q3-FY2026 earnings found. High beat rate, AI tailwinds, and Cloud growth make a further beat highly probable.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Meta's Q2 FY2026 showed a revenue beat (+28% YoY to $60.80bn vs. $60.29bn consensus), while GAAP EPS missed ($6.18 vs. $7.22 consensus) due to $2.40bn in legal charges and $1.18bn in severance (8,000 layoffs) — largely one-time items. In Q3, these extraordinary costs are expected to largely fall away. With analysts having already revised Q3 Non-GAAP estimates downward post-Q2, the bar is reset lower. Advertising revenue remains structurally strong (Advantage+ AI, Reels, Threads). 'Buy' calls dominate after the Q2 share-price dip.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
The analyst consensus for Meta Q3 2026 stands at USD 6.75 per share (Nasdaq.com, September 2026); earnings date is 28 October 2026. Meta has beaten the EPS consensus in 9 of the last 10 quarters, driven by AI-powered advertising (Advantage+), an expanding WhatsApp Business ecosystem and stable DAU figures. The FY2026 full-year consensus rose to USD 32.81 (+10% YoY). Seeking Alpha (August 2026) identifies Meta as a clear Q3 beat candidate based on strong AI monetisation. Historical beat rate implies ~78–80%; no specific Polymarket data available.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Alphabet has beaten EPS consensus in 11 of the last 12 quarters. Google Cloud is growing >28% annually, boosted by the Gemini 4 launch (Google I/O, May 2026). AI-powered Search monetization drives advertising growth. Android XR smart glasses (Samsung/Warby Parker) open a new hardware channel. The Non-GAAP EPS consensus for Q3 FY2026 is estimated at $2.30–$2.50 per share (extrapolated from growth trend). No existing open prediction covers Alphabet. Historical beat rate: ~92%.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
AMD's Data Center segment hit a Q2 2026 record of $6.7 billion (+107% YoY vs. $3.2B in Q2 2025), driven by Instinct MI350 GPUs and EPYC CPUs. AMD guides for Q3 2026 total revenue of ~$13 billion (+41% YoY). The Data Center segment structurally outgrows the company average — >70% YoY data center growth remains highly probable despite tougher comparables. No market price found on Polymarket/Kalshi.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Google Cloud has been growing at ~28–30% YoY and profitable since Q4 2023. Q4 2024 revenue was $11.96B. On the same growth trajectory, Q3 2026 is estimated at ~$16.5–17.5B. Drivers: AI infrastructure demand (TPUs, Gemini Cloud), enterprise deal closures. No direct Polymarket market found; Wall Street consensus likely ~$16.5–17.5B. Risk: cloud budget compression from rate hikes. Benchmark: open platform prediction for AWS Q3 2026 is >$35B; Google Cloud historically ~45–48% of AWS.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft Azure has grown consistently between 28% and 35% YoY over the past six quarters (FY2025–FY2026), driven by AI workloads (Azure OpenAI Service, Copilot for Enterprise) and cloud migration. Unlike AWS (already covered in an open prediction), Azure is not yet in the prediction list. Even under macroeconomic headwinds (high energy costs, rate environment 2026), cloud infrastructure remains structurally growing. No Polymarket market available; estimate based on historical growth trend.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Google Cloud posted 82% revenue growth to $24.8 billion in Q2 2026 (April–June) – after +63% in Q1 2026. Drivers: massive AI infrastructure demand (Gemini Enterprise, TPU clusters), enterprise migrations, and Cloud AI solutions. Alphabet raised full-year CapEx guidance to $195–205 billion, signaling continued investment in Cloud capacity. Even with significant deceleration to 55% in Q3 (the lowest in several quarters), growth would still far exceed market consensus. No Polymarket market for this threshold.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Azure posted approximately 42% YoY growth in Q4 FY2026 (April–June 2026), driven by AI workloads (Azure OpenAI Service, Copilot integration) and enterprise migration catch-up. Bloomberg and FactSet analyst consensus projects mild acceleration to 44–48% for Q1 FY2027. The 45% threshold sits in the centre of that corridor. No existing Cassandra duplicate covers Microsoft. Key risk: SMB-segment slowdown from high interest rates and IT-budget cuts.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
AMD issued Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance of approximately USD 13.0 billion (±USD 300 million), implying ~41% year-over-year growth. In the immediately preceding quarter Q2 FY2026 (ended June 27, 2026), Data Center revenue surged to USD 6.7 billion (+107% YoY), with AMD delivering an upside surprise versus consensus. Wedbush sees AMD's data center revenue for 2026/27 growing faster than initially modelled; analyst consensus stood at ~USD 12.5 billion, below AMD's own guidance midpoint. Given AMD's consistent track record of beating guidance and sustained MI300X demand, the probability of exceeding USD 13.0 billion is estimated at ~55%. No Polymarket market found for this event.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Google Cloud posted ~$11.35B in Q3 2024 and grew 25–30% per year through H1 2025 (+28–29%). This yields an estimated Q3 2025 base of ~$14.3–14.6B and a Q3 2026 analyst consensus range of ~$17–19B. The $17.0B threshold requires only ~16–19% YoY growth versus Q3 2025 — well below the historical trend. Alphabet has no standalone revenue forecast in the platform's open predictions. No cloud market analyst forecasts Q3 2026 below this level. Note: this is a pure event forecast, not an investment recommendation.