🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Likud received 24.2% in 2021 and 23.4% (32 seats) in November 2022, consistently polling as Israel's largest single party. Even if the opposition scenario materialises (Eisenkot as PM per open prediction), Likud can still exceed 23% of the vote — Israel's proportional system allows the largest party to sit in opposition. Calibrated on historical vote-share ranges absent current polling data.
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Richardson is the dominant sprinter of her era: Olympic champion Paris 2024, World Champion 2023 (Budapest) and 2025 in the 100m. The final of the World Athletics Ultimate Championship Budapest 2026 takes place on the last competition day (September 13, Gyula Zsivótzky National Athletics Centre). Main challengers: Shericka Jackson (JAM) and Julien Alfred (SKN). No direct Polymarket market available; bookmaker odds imply ~48–52% for Richardson, based on her ~55% final win rate at major championships since 2023.
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Antonelli leads the 2026 drivers' championship with 267 points and a 66-point gap over teammate George Russell (RacingNews365, as of September 12, 2026). He has won 7 of ~15 rounds this season – a ~47% win rate. Mercedes leads the constructors' standings by 122 points over Ferrari. Baku City Circuit favors drivers with strong quali pace on the main straight but is historically volatile (safety cars, crashes). Bookmaker odds imply ~40% for Antonelli in Baku. Rivals: Russell (MER), Norris (MCL), Leclerc (FER).
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Ethereum is currently trading at ~$2,521 (CoinGecko, September 13, 2026). A gain of ~+19% would be needed by end of October. Price drivers: (1) BTC correlation – an open Cassandra prediction sees BTC above $80,000 on September 19; historical ETH/BTC correlation ~0.80. (2) Macro liquidity – the FOMC rate hike to 3.75–4.00% (September 17, Cassandra open) is largely priced in; risk-on mode often follows. (3) Structural ETH drivers: staking yields, Layer-2 adoption, spot ETH ETF inflows. No Polymarket market for ETH >$3,000 October 2026 available; historical 6-week volatility implies +19% moves in ~42% of periods (2022–2026).
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Apple officially unveiled the iPhone Duo – its first foldable iPhone – on September 9, 2026 and announced October 2026 as the global launch window (9to5Mac, MacRumors). Apple has met every announced launch date within less than two weeks' variance over the past five years; slipping to November would be unprecedented. Key risks: short-term production issues at foldable OLED suppliers (Samsung Display, BOE) or software problems with iOS 27. Since Apple communicated a month, not an exact date, a small residual probability of delay remains.
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Jakob Ingebrigtsen holds the 1500m world record (3:26.73, set 2024) and won Olympic gold at Tokyo 2020 and Paris 2024 — he has been the dominant middle-distance force for six years. No prediction market odds found for this final; estimated ~70% win probability based on technical dominance over the field (Kejelcha ETH, Hocker USA). The closing day of WA Ultimate Championship Budapest 2026 (September 11–13) takes place today; Kenny Bednarek already won the 100m final (9.85s), signalling a strong closing programme.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
⚽ Sports
Hit
✦ AI
Fluminense FC (2023 Copa Libertadores holders, six-time Brazilian champions) face Club Atlético Platense from Buenos Aires — an Argentine Primera División side with minimal Libertadores pedigree. All three other QFs in this year's draw also favour Brazilian clubs (Palmeiras vs LDU Quito, Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle, Corinthians vs Estudiantes). No specific bookmaker market found; estimated ~78% semi-final qualification probability based on strength differential and home advantage in the second leg (Maracanã).
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
TSMC raised its FY2026 revenue growth outlook to 'above 40% YoY (in USD)' — its highest ever full-year guidance. Q3 2026 revenue guidance: $44.6–$45.8B; Q2 2026 actual: $40.20B. Primary growth driver: steep ramp of 2nm (N2) process for AI chips (customers: NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm). Q3 growth >40% is consistent with the full-year outlook and issued guidance. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for TSMC Q3 revenue growth found; probability calibrated at ~75% based on existing guidance.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98 on September 11, 2026. Reaching 7,850 by September 30 requires +2.5% over 2.5 weeks. Polymarket prices ~82% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike on September 16; if the move is already priced in, sustained downward pressure is unlikely ('buy the news' scenario). Risks: more hawkish dot plot, Middle East/Iran geopolitical escalation, weaker labour market data. No Polymarket market for this threshold found; calibrated at ~38% (benchmark: open predictions S&P >7,580 on Sept 17 and >7,800 on Oct 30).
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Alison dos Santos (BRA) is the current world record holder (45.80s, 2025/2026) and won his semifinal convincingly in 47.25s on 12 September. Karsten Warholm (NOR) finished third in his semi (47.68s), Rai Benjamin (USA) second (47.49s). The clear performance hierarchy from the semis and dos Santos' WR status imply aggregate bookmaker probability of ~60–65% in his favour. Main risk: Warholm is known for stronger finals than semis; Benjamin is dangerous in the final 100m.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
At the February 2023 Berlin repeat election, AfD received just 9.1%. Since then it has surged nationally (Thuringia Sept. 2024: 32.8%; Brandenburg Sept. 2024: 29.2%; federal election 2025: ~22%). Current Berlin poll aggregate (INSA/Forsa/Civey, early September 2026) shows AfD at ~17–18%; PolitPro aggregator shows 17.8%. In city-states AfD results are structurally below the national average, but upward momentum is pronounced. A result above 16.0% is the most likely scenario. No direct Polymarket market for Berlin available; calibrated via structural analogies and poll aggregate.