TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., NYSE: TSM) reports net revenue growth above 40% YoY in Q3 FY2026 results (July–September 2026, release approx. October 17, 2026, confirmed by TSMC IR or Bloomberg by October 18, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
TSMC raised its FY2026 revenue growth outlook to 'above 40% YoY (in USD)' — its highest ever full-year guidance. Q3 2026 revenue guidance: $44.6–$45.8B; Q2 2026 actual: $40.20B. Primary growth driver: steep ramp of 2nm (N2) process for AI chips (customers: NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm). Q3 growth >40% is consistent with the full-year outlook and issued guidance. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for TSMC Q3 revenue growth found; probability calibrated at ~75% based on existing guidance.
Data basis for this prediction
- Yahoo Finance / SEC Form 6-K: TSMC hebt FY2026-Wachstumsausblick auf >40 % YoY (USD) an (Juli 2026)
- TSMC Q2 2026 Earnings / Form 6-K: Q3-Guidance 44,6–45,8 Mrd. USD; Q2-Aktual 40,20 Mrd. USD (SEC.gov)
- TSMC Investor Relations: N2-Ramp-up als wesentlicher Wachstumstreiber H2 2026
- Polymarket / Kalshi: Kein TSMC-Q3-Umsatzwachstum-Markt identifiziert (Stand 13.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TSMC Q3 2026 Umsatzwachstum +41,2 % YoY (USD) bzw. +50,9 % in NTD, damit über 40 %-Schwelle. Quelle: TSMC Form 6-K, Yahoo Finance (Oktober 2026).
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✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.