🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu's party) receives more than 23.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Elections Committee Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

61%

Likud received 24.2% in 2021 and 23.4% (32 seats) in November 2022, consistently polling as Israel's largest single party. Even if the opposition scenario materialises (Eisenkot as PM per open prediction), Likud can still exceed 23% of the vote — Israel's proportional system allows the largest party to sit in opposition. Calibrated on historical vote-share ranges absent current polling data.

Data basis for this prediction

Knesset-Wahl Nov. 2022: Likud 23,4 % (32 Sitze) – stärkste Fraktion (Zentrales Wahlkomitee Israel)
Knesset-Wahl März 2021: Likud 24,2 % (30 Sitze) (Wikipedia / Haaretz)
Reuters/Times of Israel: Israelische Knesset-Wahl auf 27.10.2026 angesetzt (August 2026)
Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Eisenkot wird PM – konsistentes Koalitionsszenario mit Likud über 23 %

Verdict: Miss

Likud erzielte bei der Knesset-Wahl vom 27. Oktober 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (politpro.eu, Wikipedia, regionalheute.de, France 24) nur ca. 20,5 % der Stimmen (27 Mandate) – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 23,0 %. Damit trat genau das in der Vorhersage als Risiko benannte Szenario ein: Ein starker Rechtsruck hin zu kleineren Parteien der Religiös-Rechten (u. a. Bejachad mit 12 Mandaten) zog Stimmen von Likud ab. Likud blieb zwar stärkste Einzelpartei, sein Stimmenanteil sank aber gegenüber 2022 (23,4 %) auf rund 20,5 %, was die 23%-Schwelle klar verfehlt.

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