Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu's party) receives more than 23.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Elections Committee Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 27. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Likud received 24.2% in 2021 and 23.4% (32 seats) in November 2022, consistently polling as Israel's largest single party. Even if the opposition scenario materialises (Eisenkot as PM per open prediction), Likud can still exceed 23% of the vote — Israel's proportional system allows the largest party to sit in opposition. Calibrated on historical vote-share ranges absent current polling data.
Data basis for this prediction
- Knesset-Wahl Nov. 2022: Likud 23,4 % (32 Sitze) – stärkste Fraktion (Zentrales Wahlkomitee Israel)
- Knesset-Wahl März 2021: Likud 24,2 % (30 Sitze) (Wikipedia / Haaretz)
- Reuters/Times of Israel: Israelische Knesset-Wahl auf 27.10.2026 angesetzt (August 2026)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Eisenkot wird PM – konsistentes Koalitionsszenario mit Likud über 23 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
At the February 2023 Berlin repeat election, AfD received just 9.1%. Since then it has surged nationally (Thuringia Sept. 2024: 32.8%; Brandenburg Sept. 2024: 29.2%; federal election 2025: ~22%). Current Berlin poll aggregate (INSA/Forsa/Civey, early September 2026) shows AfD at ~17–18%; PolitPro aggregator shows 17.8%. In city-states AfD results are structurally below the national average, but upward momentum is pronounced. A result above 16.0% is the most likely scenario. No direct Polymarket market for Berlin available; calibrated via structural analogies and poll aggregate.