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Ingebrigtsen is the 2021 Olympic champion (Tokyo) and 2022 World Champion (Oregon). Main rivals: Josh Kerr (GBR, 2023 World Champion at this same Budapest track) and Cole Hocker (USA, 2024 Paris Olympic champion). A three-way contest prevents clear favorites; bookmaker odds imply ~35–42% for Ingebrigtsen.
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Woo Sang-hyeok is the reigning World Champion (Budapest 2023, 2.35m) and leads the world season list. Main rivals: JuVaughn Harrison (USA, two-time WC silver) and Hamish Kerr (NZL, Paris 2024 Olympic champion). In a competitive 6-man field, Woo's individual win probability is ~38–44%. No Polymarket market found. Duplantis (pole vault) is already covered; men's high jump is the last uncovered jumping event.
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Marc Márquez is the clear main race favorite at Misano per Crash.net, with market odds of @2.37 (~42% implied). Márquez is only 19 points behind championship leader Martín (256 pts) and urgently needs points. Misano suits Ducati; Gresini-Ducati is technically on par with the factory team. An open Cassandra prediction covers Márquez on the podium (Top 3) — this prediction is distinct and forecasts the outright win. Martín at @7.50 (~13%), Bagnaia at @23.00 (~4%).
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Thea LaFond-Sherrod (DMA) is the 2026 world leader and Commonwealth champion. Main rivals: Saly Sarr (FRA, 2026 DL champion), Perez Hernandez and Velazco (CUB). Genuine four-way race. No prediction market; own calibration: ~39%.
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Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 F1 World Championship with 267 points — 66 ahead of George Russell (Mercedes, 2nd) — and has won 7 of 13 races (54% win rate, 6 poles, 11 podiums). The open prediction (Norris Top-3 podium in Spain) is compatible: Antonelli can win while Norris takes P2 or P3. Per-race probability for the championship leader: ~35–40%. No explicit market quote available.
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Gabrielle 'Gabby' Thomas (USA), reigning Olympic champion at 200m (Paris 2024, 21.81s) and world No. 1, is the top favourite in the women's 200m final on September 13, 2026 (Gyula Zsivotzky National Athletics Centre, Budapest). Key rivals are Shericka Jackson (JAM) and potentially Sha'Carri Richardson (USA), who already won 100m gold at this championship. Sprint depth makes this a genuinely open race; Thomas's 200m specialisation remains a structural edge. No Polymarket market available; estimate based on world rankings and season-best times.
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With the injury-forced withdrawal of defending Olympic champion Noah Lyles (USA) – confirmed by Manila Times / Yahoo Sports on September 5, 2026 – Kishane Thompson (JAM) is the new top favorite. Thompson holds the 2025 world season lead of 9.75s and narrowly lost the Tokyo 2025 World Championships final to Oblique Seville (9.77s). World Athletics calls Thompson 'the man to beat'. Bookmaker odds imply Thompson at approximately 35–42%. Main rivals: Oblique Seville (JAM, reigning 2025 world champion) and youngster Gout Gout (AUS, 18 years old, 10.00s). Probability: approximately 38%.
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Zverev moved up to seed 1 after Jannik Sinner's withdrawal. Polymarket prices Zverev at 23.1% to win the title, second to Alcaraz (28%). As seed 1, Zverev is in the opposite half from Alcaraz (#2), so a final appearance is independent of Alcaraz's results. Reaching the final requires winning four matches (through the semifinals). With a 23.1% title probability and an estimated ~60% win probability if he reaches the final, the implied semifinal reach probability is approximately 38–40%.
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Marc Marquez won Saturday's Tissot Sprint in Misano by 1.068 seconds over Marco Bezzecchi (Aprilia Racing), with Jorge Martin (Aprilia) 3rd. As sprint winner he carries momentum into the 27-lap main race. Marquez is dominant for the factory Ducati squad this season; his Misano head-to-head over multiple years is positive. Bookmaker odds imply ~35–40% for another win; the broader field (Bezzecchi, Di Giannantonio, Martin) is competitive. No Polymarket market available.
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Enric Mas leads the 2026 Vuelta GC after Stage 9 with +1:18 over Roglic, +1:39 over Gall. Pogacar is out after Stage 8. Polymarket: Gall leads at 18.3%. The critical risk is Stage 18 ITT (Sept 10) where Roglic is an open prediction favorite — if he takes 1:18+ there, Mas loses the lead. However, Mas won Stage 9 at altitude and can defend in Stages 19-20 (queen stages). Overall probability: ~37%.
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Sabalenka is the top seed and tournament favorite for a historic third consecutive US Open title. Projected semifinal against Jessica Pegula (No. 3, SF forecast already open); in the bottom half, Coco Gauff (No. 4, also SF forecast open), Elena Rybakina, or Iga Swiatek (No. 8) could reach the final. No Polymarket price found for this event at query time. Own calibration based on WTA Elo and historical defending-champion odds: Sabalenka approx. 35–40%. The forecast is consistent with open SF predictions for Pegula and Gauff, and with the men's forecast 'Sinner wins' (independent half of the tournament).
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Remco Evenepoel won the Québec-Montréal double in 2022 and 2023 and is again the top favourite following his projected Québec win (open platform anchor: Evenepoel, Sept 11). The Montréal course with its final climbs suits him as a rouleur-climber. Official race date: Sunday, September 13, 2026 (confirmed by gpcqm.ca). Main rivals: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step, teammate). No Polymarket market; bookmaker odds imply ~36% for Evenepoel in a double start in top form.
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The men's 400m final on September 13 is a three-way contest: Quincy Hall (USA, Olympic champion Paris 2024, PB 43.40s, auto-qualified), Busang Kebinatshipi (BOT, 2026 world no. 1) and Christopher Morales Williams (CAN, 2026 world indoor champion, 44.76s CR). No specific Budapest 400m contract found on prediction markets. Three-way starting scenario implies roughly 33–35% each for Hall and Kebinatshipi; Hall slightly preferred given Olympic experience and 43.40s personal best.
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Jorge Martín (Aprilia) leads the 2026 MotoGP World Championship after Silverstone (Round 12) with 240 points – 31 ahead of Marco Bezzecchi (209, Aprilia) and 37 ahead of Ai Ogura (203, Trackhouse). He has dominated the season with sprint and GP wins (including both at Silverstone). Misano is an Aprilia-friendly circuit (long braking zones, medium top-speed requirements, low tyre wear). Defending champion Marc Márquez (Ducati) lost heavily at Silverstone (just 1 point, 9th in sprint). No direct prediction market; Martín's current season win rate (~1 in 3 races) and Misano track affinity yield ~35% single-race win probability.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
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Freweyni Hailu (ETH) is the 2026 Diamond League champion at 5000m and enters as top favourite. Ethiopia historically dominates women's distance running; with Likina Amebaw (ETH) also in the final, victory is likely to stay in the Ethiopian camp — though not guaranteed for any individual. Faith Kipyegon and Beatrice Chebet are absent. Rose Davies (AUS) is the strongest non-African. No Polymarket market; statistical base implies ~33–37% for Hailu.
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Bookmaker odds imply around 33% for a Real Sociedad home win (best line ~3.03), 28% draw, and 39% for Atlético (Oddschecker, Sep 13, 2026). Both clubs enter the match on 7 points from 4 games. Atlético dropped points twice in Jornada 3 and 4 away from home, including a 0-3 loss to Athletic Club — the squad looks defensively vulnerable on the road. The Reale Arena (Anoeta) is one of La Liga's strongest home fortresses: Real Sociedad lost no home league games there last season. Slight upward deviation from market odds based on structural home-venue advantage.
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Bagnaia won MotoGP main races at Misano in three consecutive years (2022, 2023, 2024) – his statistically strongest circuit. Main rivals: Jorge Martin and Marc Marquez, also on Ducati platforms. Bookmaker odds imply ~30–36% for Bagnaia.
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Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Drivers' Championship with 267 points – 66 ahead of teammate George Russell. He won the preceding Italian GP at Monza from 19th on the grid (P19→P1), underscoring his overtaking ability on the new MADRING street circuit in Madrid. Polymarket prices Antonelli as the clear favourite at 33% (Norris 21.5%, Russell 15.5%, Hamilton 10.5%). Seven season wins and a 66-point cushion support consistency; however, the brand-new circuit introduces genuine uncertainty.
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Polymarket shows 33% for Antonelli – clear market favorite. The Italian leads the 2026 championship with 267 points, 66 clear of Russell (7 wins in 13 races, latest a P19 comeback at Monza). An Antonelli win is fully consistent with existing predictions (Russell and Norris each on the podium in P2/P3). Nearest rivals: Russell 15.5%, Norris ~22%, Hamilton 10.5%.
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Marquez won the most recent Aragon Grand Prix and sits 2nd in the standings (237 pts), only 19 points behind championship leader Jorge Martin (Aprilia, 256 pts). Bezzecchi (232 pts) completes a tight three-way fight. Misano is traditionally strong for top Ducati riders; Marquez's current form and circuit profile support his status as race favourite. Single-race win probability for the favourite in MotoGP typically sits 20–35%.
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Julian Weber won the 2026 European Championships in Birmingham with a European-record 90.40m – his second consecutive European title. He ranks 2nd on the 2026 world list; Neeraj Chopra is only 7th and lost the head-to-head to Weber at Doha DL 2025. Weber has Budapest experience (silver at 2023 Worlds in the same stadium). Competitive field: Peters (TTO), Dehning (GER), Vadlejch (CZE). No market odds; calibration: 32%.
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Ingebrigtsen (two-time 1500m world champion Budapest 2023/Eugene 2022) returned in 2026 following Achilles surgery (February 2026). Recent form is concerning: 4th place (3:31.19) at Diamond League Silesia behind winner Ethan Strand, 5th in Zurich. Main rivals Cole Hocker (USA, Paris 2024 Olympic champion) and Josh Kerr (GBR) appear stronger. In a fragmented favorites field, Ingebrigtsen is estimated at approximately 30%; experience as defending Budapest champion remains an advantage. Final Sunday, September 13. No Polymarket odds available.
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Roglič is a 4-time Vuelta champion (2019–2021, 2023) targeting a record 5th title. Vingegaard (defending 2025 champion) is his main rival; Pogačar is less likely to be at peak after the Tour. Roglič excels on Spanish high-mountain profiles; the 2026 Vuelta features 7 summit finishes. Bookmaker odds imply ~28–33% for Roglič, ~25–30% for Vingegaard.
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Vingegaard is the reigning Vuelta champion (2025) and one of three dominant stage-race riders globally. The 2026 route (Monaco opening ITT, seven summit finishes, final stages on Gran Canaria/Tenerife) suits climbers – Vingegaard's profile. Tadej Pogačar (won Tour de France 2026 by over 7 minutes) may not target the Vuelta; Remco Evenepoel (Vuelta winner 2022 and 2023, 2nd TdF 2026) is the most dangerous rival. Bookmaker odds imply approximately 30% for Vingegaard (Cycling Weekly Vuelta 2026 Preview). As defending champion with a strong Visma team, this is the base probability.
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Polymarket prices Alcaraz at 28% as favourite, ahead of Alexander Zverev (23.2%), Novak Djokovic (10.7%) and Arthur Fils (7.2%). Alcaraz is the defending US Open champion. Jannik Sinner (seed 3) withdrew on August 21, 2026 due to a knee injury — a key rival is eliminated. Alcaraz's aggressive baseline game, serve-and-volley versatility and mental strength on hard courts support a title defence. Zverev is considered the most dangerous potential semi-final opponent. Seeded 1 or 2 depending on tournament timeline.
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Sabalenka enters as two-time defending US Open champion and clear favourite. Kalshi prices her at 24%, Caesars Sportsbook at +275 (implying ~27%). Her 2026 hard-court season is exceptional: 27 wins, 3 losses (90% win rate), three titles — no rival comes close. We set slightly above market at 30%, as her dominance on the surface is historically singular and rivals (Swiatek seeded No. 8, Gauff No. 4) have so far not matched her hard-court consistency. Consistent with open predictions for Swiatek/Gauff/Rybakina quarter-finals and Pegula/Andreeva semi-finals.
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Jannik Sinner (ITA, originally seeded #2) has withdrawn with a knee injury per ESPN/Yahoo Sports, elevating Alcaraz to clear favourite. Aggregate bookmaker odds imply ~26–30% for Alcaraz (ESPN: +250 = 26.5% raw, ~30% margin-adjusted). Sharpest rivals: Alexander Zverev (~20%), Novak Djokovic (~11%). Alcaraz is a two-time US Open champion (2022, 2023) and a dominant hard-court player; without Sinner he holds the best Flushing Meadows track record in the draw. Cassandra's platform tips Zverev, Djokovic, Auger-Aliassime and Rune to all reach the QF — but Alcaraz is the aggregate favourite.
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After the Hungarian GP (27 July 2026, won by Norris/McLaren), Antonelli leads the drivers' championship with 219 points – 50 ahead of Hamilton (Ferrari). Mercedes dominates constructors (379 vs. Ferrari 307 vs. McLaren 220). The new Madrid street circuit (debut, 13 September) favours aerodynamically strong cars; Mercedes leads in downforce package for 2026. Antonelli has 6 season wins so far (including Monza expected). No Polymarket market specifically for Madrid; bookmaker odds imply ~25–30% for Antonelli as favourite. Norris (McLaren, recent winner) and Hamilton (Ferrari) are main rivals.
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Aryna Sabalenka won the US Open in 2024 and 2025 and seeks a third consecutive title, which would equal Serena Williams's record. Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~25% probability (~4.00 odds). Despite form dips since March 2026, she is historically dominant on hardcourt and in New York. Main challengers: Iga Swiatek (~14% implied, ~7.00) and Coco Gauff (~12%, ~8.00). Note: Jannik Sinner (men's No. 1) withdrew injured; Alexander Zverev takes the men's top seed.