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Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes, ITA) wins the F1 TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España 2026 (MADRING, Madrid, 13 September 2026, confirmed by FIA result or ESPN by 13 September 2026)
Probability
33%
Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Drivers' Championship with 267 points – 66 ahead of teammate George Russell. He won the preceding Italian GP at Monza from 19th on the grid (P19→P1), underscoring his overtaking ability on the new MADRING street circuit in Madrid. Polymarket prices Antonelli as the clear favourite at 33% (Norris 21.5%, Russell 15.5%, Hamilton 10.5%). Seven season wins and a 66-point cushion support consistency; however, the brand-new circuit introduces genuine uncertainty.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket F1 Spanish GP Winner 2026-09-13: Antonelli 33%, Norris 21,5%, Russell 15,5% (Stand 7. September 2026)
- motorsport.com WM-Stand nach Monza: Antonelli 267 Pts, Russell 201, Hamilton 191, Norris 171 (7. September 2026)
- formula1.com Italian GP Ergebnis: 1. Antonelli, 2. Russell, 3. Verstappen, 4. Norris – Startplatz P19 (7. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) gewann den F1 TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España 2026 am 13. September 2026 auf dem MADRING in Madrid. Er belegte Platz 1 vor Max Verstappen (Red Bull) und Lando Norris (McLaren). Ein Virtual Safety Car ermöglichte ihm einen günstigen Boxenstopp, wodurch er die Rennführung von Norris übernahm und komfortabel zum Sieg fuhr – sein achter Saisonsieg. Damit baute er seinen WM-Vorsprung auf 81 Punkte aus. Quellen: formula1.com (offizielle Rennergebnisse & Racebericht), nbcnews.com, yahoo sports.