🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): The Left Party wins more than 10.0% of votes and enters the Landtag

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

Current polls (Infratest dimap / DAWUM, as of August–September 2026) put The Left at 13% in Saxony-Anhalt. In 2021 they got 11.0% there. Eastern Germany remains a structurally stronger base than the national average (~4–5%). A result above 10% is well supported by polls — the margin above the threshold is ~3 percentage points. Risk: AfD mobilisation could draw votes away. No direct prediction market anchor.

Data basis for this prediction

DAWUM-Wahlumfragen Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: Die Linke 13 % (Stand ca. 1. September 2026)
Sachsen-Anhalt-Landtagswahl 2021: Die Linke 11,0 % (Landeswahlleiter ST)
Bundestrend Die Linke Aug 2026: ~4–5 % (INSA Sonntagsfrage)

Verdict: Miss

Die Linke erzielte laut amtlichem Ergebnis und Wikipedia 8,6 % der Zweitstimmen (wahlrecht.de: 8,56 %) — damit deutlich unter der Vorhersageschwelle von mehr als 10,0 %. Es war sogar das bislang schlechteste Ergebnis der Partei in Sachsen-Anhalt (−2,4 Prozentpunkte gegenüber 11,0 % im Jahr 2021). Die Partei zog zwar mit 8 Sitzen in den Landtag ein (da sie die 5 %-Hürde überschritt), aber die spezifische Bedingung der Vorhersage — mehr als 10 % — wurde klar verfehlt. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt 2026'; wahlrecht.de Ergebnisseite; wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de (alle 2.661 Wahlbezirke ausgezählt, Stand 7. September 2026, 3:21 Uhr).

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