🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): CDU wins more than 30.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Saxony-Anhalt or tagesschau.de by September 7, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

52%

In the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, CDU under Minister-President Reiner Haseloff won 37.1%. Since then, the AfD has surged massively and is forecast above 37% in 2026. Eastern Germany comparison: Saxony 2024 CDU 31.9%, Thuringia 2024 CDU 23.6%. Saxony-Anhalt is structurally more CDU-friendly than Thuringia and Haseloff's incumbency advantage is stabilising. The 30% threshold is plausible but not secure — a collapse to 25–29% following the Thuringian pattern is possible.

Data basis for this prediction

SA-Wahl 2021: CDU 37,1 %, AfD 20,8 % (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt / tagesschau.de)
Sachsen 2024: CDU 31,9 %; Thüringen 2024: CDU 23,6 % (Landeswahlleiter / tagesschau.de)
Cassandra.news-Bestand: AfD SA 2026 >37 % prognostiziert (Stand 3. Sept 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die CDU erzielte bei der Sachsen-Anhalt-Landtagswahl vom 6. September 2026 laut Wikipedia (Endergebnis) nur 17,2 % der Stimmen (Exit-Polls: 17,4 % laut Al Jazeera) – also deutlich unter der prognostizierten Schwelle von 30,0 %. Die AfD gewann mit ca. 43,8 % einen Erdrutschsieg. Die CDU verlor gegenüber 2021 (37,1 %) mehr als die Hälfte ihrer Wähler. Das ostdeutsche Thüringen-Muster (CDU-Einbruch auf ~23,6 %) wurde damit sogar noch weit unterschritten; der in der Vorhersage als stabilisierend angenommene Haseloff-Amtsinhaberbonus vermochte den massiven Rechtsruck nicht aufzuhalten. Quellen: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Saxony-Anhalt_state_election; aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/6/far-right-afd-wins-vote-in-germanys-saxony-anhalt-state-exit-polls

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026