🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar party) becomes Israel's next Prime Minister (confirmed by Israeli Central Elections Committee or Reuters by November 15, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

55%

Polymarket gives Eisenkot 54.5% probability of becoming next Israeli PM (September 13, 2026; $37.2M trading volume). Five-poll average (Sep 8-10): Yashar 23.6 seats, Likud 21.8 seats. Netanyahu's right-wing bloc reaches ~53-54 seats — far from the required 61. Only one of five current surveys (i24NEWS) shows Netanyahu near a majority. Eisenkot's bloc can reach up to 61 seats with Arab-democratic lists. Netanyahu has only 29% probability on Polymarket.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Eisenkot 54,5 % als Nächster Premierminister Israels (Stand 13. September 2026, 37,2 Mio. USD Volumen)
Jerusalem Post Umfragen-Rundschau: Yashar 23,6 Sitze, Likud 21,8 Sitze im Schnitt (10. September 2026)
Times of Israel: Wahlpatt nach Listenfinalisierung – Eisenkot-Weg zu 61 Sitzen möglich (September 2026)
Haaretz: Knesset-Wahl offiziell am 27. Oktober 2026 (Parlamentsbeschluss 12. Juli 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die Wahl fand wie vorhergesagt am 27. Oktober 2026 statt, jedoch wurde Eisenkot NICHT als Ministerpräsident bestätigt. Netanjahus Rechtsblock gewann 53 Sitze, Eisenkots Oppositionsblock nur 48 Sitze – keiner erreichte die nötige Mehrheit von 61. Der entscheidende Fehler der Vorhersage: Eisenkots einziger Weg zu 61 Sitzen verlief über die arabischen Parteien (~19 Sitze), aber seine eigenen Koalitionspartner Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu) und Bennett blockierten genau dieses Szenario explizit. Eisenkot erklärte sich zwar selbst zum Sieger, doch bis zur Frist 15. November 2026 wurde weder von der israelischen Wahlkommission noch von Reuters eine Bestätigung als PM gemeldet – stattdessen befand sich Israel in einem politischen Patt mit laufenden Koalitionsverhandlungen. Quellen: Jerusalem Post (jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-913122), CNN (cnn.com/2026/10/28/world/live-news/israel-election-result-live-latest), NPR (npr.org/2026/10/28/nx-s1-6019423/israel-election-results).

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