Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. November 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Peltola (D) Alaska Senate 72% Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit, Stand 3. November 2026
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Senatsmehrheit 72–77%, US-Repräsentantenhaus 95%, Stand 3. November 2026
- Ballotpedia: Alaska Senate 2026 — Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D), Stand 3. November 2026
- Poliwave.com: US 2026 Midterm Results Live — Alaska Senate early ballot returns, 3. November 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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