Israeli Knesset election (October 27, 2026): Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar party) becomes Israel's next Prime Minister (confirmed by Israeli Central Elections Committee or Reuters by November 15, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 27. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket gives Eisenkot 54.5% probability of becoming next Israeli PM (September 13, 2026; $37.2M trading volume). Five-poll average (Sep 8-10): Yashar 23.6 seats, Likud 21.8 seats. Netanyahu's right-wing bloc reaches ~53-54 seats — far from the required 61. Only one of five current surveys (i24NEWS) shows Netanyahu near a majority. Eisenkot's bloc can reach up to 61 seats with Arab-democratic lists. Netanyahu has only 29% probability on Polymarket.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Eisenkot 54,5 % als Nächster Premierminister Israels (Stand 13. September 2026, 37,2 Mio. USD Volumen)
- Jerusalem Post Umfragen-Rundschau: Yashar 23,6 Sitze, Likud 21,8 Sitze im Schnitt (10. September 2026)
- Times of Israel: Wahlpatt nach Listenfinalisierung – Eisenkot-Weg zu 61 Sitzen möglich (September 2026)
- Haaretz: Knesset-Wahl offiziell am 27. Oktober 2026 (Parlamentsbeschluss 12. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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