🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Sverigedemokraterna (SD, Sweden) receives more than 17.5% of votes cast in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

82%

Current polls place the Sweden Democrats well above the threshold: Demoskop (fieldwork August 24, 2026) shows SD at 18.3%, the PolitPro trend model projects 19.2%. SD would thus be the second-largest party with 67–70 Riksdag seats. No prediction market trades this threshold directly; polling averages imply approximately 82% probability. Residual risks (weak mobilization, tactical voting toward Moderaterna) are limited.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop-Umfrage, Feldarbeit 24. August 2026: SD 18,3 % (politpro.eu)
PolitPro Election Trend Schweden, Stand August 2026: SD 19,2 %
Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election (Stand August 2026)
Riksdag-Wahl Datum: 13. September 2026 (Valmyndigheten)

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielten laut offiziellen Ergebnissen der Valmyndigheten (alle 6.626 Wahlbezirke ausgezählt) exakt 17,5 % der Stimmen – und damit nicht *mehr* als 17,5 %, wie die Vorhersage verlangte. SD gewann zudem nur 62 Riksdag-Sitze (statt der prognostizierten 67–70) und fiel sogar auf Platz 3 zurück (statt als zweitstärkste Partei abzuschließen). Die zugrunde gelegten Umfragen (Demoskop 18,3 %, PolitPro 19,2 %) überschätzten das SD-Ergebnis deutlich – Mobilisierungsschwäche und taktisches Wählen zugunsten der Moderaterna (die zweitstärkste Partei blieben) dürften die Lücke erklären. Es war zugleich der erste Rückgang bei einer Riksdag-Wahl in der Geschichte der Partei. Quellen: val.se (resultat.val.se/val2026), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', Outlook India ('Sweden Democrats Lose Ground, Fall to Third With 17.5% Vote Share'), Al Jazeera ('far right suffers election losses').

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