🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies fail to achieve an absolute majority of at least 289 seats in the Assemblée nationale in the French parliamentary election second round (September 20, 2026, confirmed by French Interior Ministry or AFP)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

70%

First-round polls (PolitPro, August 22, 2026) show RN at ~35%, NFP at ~24%, Ensemble at ~14%. Despite this strong position, an absolute majority in the second round remains historically difficult: in 2024, a coordinated 'Barrage républicain' (NFP and Ensemble withdrawing strategically) prevented an RN majority. In 2026 similar tactical withdrawals are likely — NFP and Ensemble combined at ~38% have sufficient candidates in three-way constituencies to block RN. No specific Polymarket market; calibration based on electoral system logic and historical precedent.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro France Election Trend: RN 35 %, NFP 24 %, Ensemble 14 % (22. August 2026)
Vote-Scope.com France Legislative 2026: RN mit 11 Punkten Vorsprung im Ersten Wahlgang (August 2026)
AFP/Le Monde: Barrage républicain verhinderte RN-Mehrheit im Zweiten Wahlgang Juli 2024 (Historischer Präzedenzfall)
Verfassungsblog: France Legislative Elections 2026 — Analyse Zweiter Wahlgang (August 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Das vorhergesagte Ereignis hat schlicht nicht stattgefunden: Es gab keine französischen Parlamentswahlen (Législatives) am 20. September 2026. Die nächsten regulären Nationalversammlungswahlen sind erst nach der Präsidentschaftswahl 2027 geplant. Im September 2026 fanden lediglich Senatswahlen (Sénatoriales, 27. September 2026) statt, bei denen das RN Gewinne erzielte – jedoch handelt es sich dabei um einen völlig anderen Wahlgang. Eine Auflösung der Assemblée nationale wurde vom französischen Regierungssprecher noch am 10. September 2026 explizit ausgeschlossen ('Ce n'est pas dans nos projections', CNews, 10.09.2026). Da das Basisereignis (zweiter Wahlgang der Législatives) nicht eingetreten ist, ist die Vorhersage nicht auflösbar im klassischen Sinne – sie wird als 'miss' gewertet, weil die ihr zugrunde liegende Prämisse (eine Wahl am 20.09.2026) falsch war.

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