🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Nicolás Maduro leaves the Venezuelan presidency by December 31, 2026 (resignation, ousting or forced removal, confirmed by Reuters or AFP)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

54%

Polymarket currently gives 56% probability of Maduro's departure by end of 2026. Venezuela is in sustained economic and political crisis: international sanctions (OFAC, EU), opposition gains since the disputed 2024 presidential election, increasing hemispheric and US pressure. The military – previously loyal – is showing first signs of internal fractures. Cassandra sets probability at 54%, slightly below the Polymarket anchor, as short-term stabilisation via the security apparatus likely persists and Maduro has historically been resilient under pressure.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 'Venezuelan President Maduro out of power by end of 2026' – 56 % (Forbes Polymarket 2026 Prognosen-Artikel, Stand Juli 2026)
Venezuela-Krise: Wirtschaftskollaps, OFAC-Sanktionen Ölsektor, US Treasury 2025–2026
Umstrittene Präsidentschaftswahl Venezuela 2024: Oppositionsgewinne bestätigt durch Carter Center / Reuters
Polymarket Nothing Ever Happens 2026: 67 % (Gegenindikator kurzfristige politische Stabilität)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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