🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Moderaterna (M) finishes third in vote share at the Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026), behind Socialdemokraterna (S) and Sverigedemokraterna (SD), confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

75%

Current polls (September 6, 2026): PolitPro trend shows S at 28.9%, SD at 19.6%, M at 17.3%. Infostat (September 1): S 27.2%, SD 20.2%, M 17.5%. Demoskop (August 24): S 30.4%, SD 18.3%, M 17.2%. SD consistently leads M across all polls — the gap is 2–3 percentage points with no visible catch-up trend. M in third is the consensus scenario. The existing open predictions cover S as the largest party, SD >18.5%, and small parties, but not M's exact rank.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Sweden Election Trend (Stand 6. September 2026): S 28,9 % | SD 19,6 % | M 17,3 % (politpro.eu)
Infostat Umfrage (1. September 2026): S 27,2 % | SD 20,2 % | M 17,5 % (politpro.eu)
Demoskop Umfrage (24. August 2026): S 30,4 % | SD 18,3 % | M 17,2 % (politpro.eu)

Verdict: Miss

Moderaterna landete NICHT auf dem dritten Platz. Laut dem offiziellen Valmyndigheten-Vorabresultat (17. September 2026, resultat.val.se) und Berichten von SVT/News55 lautet die tatsächliche Reihenfolge: 1. Socialdemokraterna ~28 %, 2. Moderaterna ~19,9 % (70 Mandate), 3. Sverigedemokraterna ~17,5 % (62 Mandate). SD erlitt einen historischen Rückschlag und verlor gegenüber 2022 fast 3 Prozentpunkte – zum ersten Mal seit ihrem Einzug ins Riksdag 2010 schrumpfte die Partei. Laut SVT und sejfer.se wechselten SD-Wähler zu Moderaterna. Alle Vorab-Umfragen hatten SD noch 2–3 Punkte vor M gesehen, aber die Wählerabwanderung kurz vor dem Wahltag kehrte das Verhältnis um. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten, 2026-09-17), SVT Nyheter, News55, sejfer.se.

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