🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wins the Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, 2026 against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) (confirmed by TSE Brasil or Reuters/AFP)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Polymarket prices Lula's win at 62.5%, Flávio Bolsonaro's at 34.8% (as of August 2026). In a simulated runoff per Quaest poll: Lula 43% vs. Bolsonaro 40% — statistically tied, but Lula's broader coalition potential in the second round is a structural advantage (eliminated candidates' voters more often lean toward PT). A runoff is near-certain per a parallel open prediction. Lula's advantages: PT party apparatus and centrist support.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Lula Wahlsieg 62,5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34,8% (Stand Aug. 2026)
Quaest-Umfrage: Lula 43% vs. Bolsonaro 40% in simulierter Stichwahl (Al Jazeera, 15. Aug. 2026)
AS/COA Poll Tracker: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 31% in Runde 1; Stichwahl nahezu sicher (Aug. 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen gegenüber 48,21 % für Bolsonaro (ca. 64,26 Mio. vs. 59,83 Mio. Stimmen). Der Sieg wurde vom Präsidenten des TSE Brasil offiziell verkündet (Quelle: tse.jus.br) und von internationalen Medien wie CNBC, NPR, Bloomberg und CNN Brasil bestätigt. Bemerkenswert: Flávio Bolsonaro hatte den ersten Wahlgang noch mit 47,03 % vor Lula (45,16 %) gewonnen — ein historisches Novum in der brasilianischen Demokratiegeschichte seit 1989. Das in der Vorhersage genannte strukturelle Argument (breiteres Koalitionspotenzial Lulas im zweiten Wahlgang durch Wähler eliminierter Kandidaten) traf exakt zu und war entscheidend für die Trendumkehr. Quellen: TSE Brasil (tse.jus.br), Vatican News (vaticannews.va/pt), InfoMoney, CNN Brasil.

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Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

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