MV State Election (Sep 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Schwerin parliament
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
All available polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern place BSW clearly below the five-percent threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15, 2026) at 3%, Pollytix (Sep 8–9) at 5%, with the aggregated election trend at 4.2%. Unlike Berlin, BSW lacks the organisational roots in MV; clearing the threshold would require a massive polling error across all institutes. No Polymarket coverage; calibrated on polling aggregation.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Umfrage MV (8.–15. Sept. 2026): AfD 37 %, SPD 35 %, Die Linke 10 %, CDU 7 %, BSW 3 %
- Pollytix-Umfrage MV (8.–9. Sept. 2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 30 %, Die Linke 12 %, CDU 6 %, BSW 5 %
- Wahltrend MV aggregiert (Stand 17. Sept. 2026): BSW 4,2 % — klar unter 5 %-Hürde (Europe Elects / Wikipedia)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The aggregated Berlin election trend (as of Sep 17, 2026) shows Die Linke at 20.6% and the CDU at 19.9% — a margin of only 0.7 percentage points. Die Linke has consistently led narrowly since August 2026, benefiting from structural mobilisation advantages in left-leaning districts (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Prenzlauer Berg). The extremely tight polling margin implies significant residual uncertainty; a CDU late surge or election-day swing is realistic. No Polymarket coverage for this specific outcome.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (INSA/Tagesspiegel, mid-September 2026) show BSW at exactly 5% in Berlin — right at the blocking clause. The Dawum.de aggregate trend shows steady BSW decline since spring 2026, with interim readings at 3–4%. Infratest dimap analysis suggests Berlin voters concentrate protest votes more on Die Linke than on BSW. No direct prediction market anchor. Historically, parties polling exactly at the 5% threshold slightly more often fall short: late deciders tend to consolidate around established parties. Estimated probability: ~55%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The weighted polling average from dawum.de (4 surveys, n = 6,627, 10–14 Sep 2026) puts the FDP at 3.0 % – roughly two percentage points below the 5 % threshold. Individual surveys (Tagesspiegel, Berliner Morgenpost, Sep 2026) also show 3 %. No district-seat path or meaningful last-minute surge is visible; the trend has kept the Berlin FDP stably below the barrier since spring 2026.