FOMC raises Federal Funds Target Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% on December 16–17, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices approximately 68% probability for a further 25bps Fed rate hike in December 2026 (separate market: 'Fed rate ends 2026 at 4.25%': 53%). The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 17, 2026 — its first hike since 2023. Drivers for a December hike: persistent core PCE inflation (August 2026 consensus: >3.3% YoY; separate open platform prediction), a consistently strong labor market, and the oil price premium from the Iran war (Brent: ~$103/barrel). The October FOMC meeting (October 28) is expected to hold per an open platform prediction (rate stays at 3.75%–4.00%), positioning December as the next action point. Headwinds: a potential Iran ceasefire could ease oil/inflation pressure; December midterm aftermath could prompt Fed caution. Polymarket: 'Another Fed hike in 2026 (any)': 86%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed hike 25bps Dezember 2026 = 68 % Yes (Stand 21.09.2026)
- Polymarket: Fed rate ends 2026 at 4,25 % = 53 % (Stand 21.09.2026)
- Polymarket: Another Fed hike in 2026 (any) = 86 % (Stand 21.09.2026)
- Fed Funds Rate nach September-Erhöhung auf 3,75 %–4,00 %; erste Erhöhung seit 2023 (Fed-Pressemitteilung, 17.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate (Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate) to 1.25% on September 18, 2026 in a 7-2 vote — the highest level in 31 years. TONA futures pricing (CentralBank.Watch) implies ~84% probability of a further hike at the October meeting (October 29–30). Drivers: persistent Japanese wage-price dynamics, rising inflation expectations above the 2% target, and BoJ board members Takata and Noguchi as advocates for acceleration. FXStreet reported: 'BoJ still on course for October hike.' The previous Bloomberg consensus scenario ('next hike in October') was partly shifted by the September move, but TONA pricing continues to lean toward October. Downside risk: the narrow 7-2 vote and global uncertainty (Iran war, US tariffs) could push the next move to December; Polymarket showed estimates in a wide band (22–78%). Calibrated at 67% accounting for market divergence.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The SNB quarterly meeting on September 25, 2026 occurs amid strong CHF safe-haven demand from the Iran war (ongoing since February 2026) and global uncertainty. CHF appreciation creates deflationary import pressure and hurts Swiss exporters. The ECB at 2.75% is far above the SNB level, leaving room to ease. The SNB ran an aggressive easing cycle in 2024–2025; current rate estimated at ~0.25%. No Polymarket market found for this meeting; own probability of a cut: ~58%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The US Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to the target range of 3.75%–4.00% (FedRateCalc.com). Historically, the Fed pauses after a hike for at least one meeting before taking another step; the historical post-hike pause rate is approximately 75%. The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 27–28, 2026 — only six weeks after the September hike. Another increase so soon would require significantly above-expectation inflation data (PCE, CPI) forcing an immediate reaction. Current US core PCE inflation for August 2026 (released September 26) is projected above 3.3% YoY per an existing Cassandra forecast — elevated but within the Fed's known projection. Simultaneously, the ongoing Iran war (elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty) creates headwinds for aggressive continued tightening. No explicit Polymarket or Kalshi market for October FOMC available; own estimate 74%.