FOMC leaves the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at the October 28, 2026 meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The US Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to the target range of 3.75%–4.00% (FedRateCalc.com). Historically, the Fed pauses after a hike for at least one meeting before taking another step; the historical post-hike pause rate is approximately 75%. The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 27–28, 2026 — only six weeks after the September hike. Another increase so soon would require significantly above-expectation inflation data (PCE, CPI) forcing an immediate reaction. Current US core PCE inflation for August 2026 (released September 26) is projected above 3.3% YoY per an existing Cassandra forecast — elevated but within the Fed's known projection. Simultaneously, the ongoing Iran war (elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty) creates headwinds for aggressive continued tightening. No explicit Polymarket or Kalshi market for October FOMC available; own estimate 74%.
Data basis for this prediction
- FedRateCalc.com: FOMC rate decision Sept. 16, 2026 – Federal Funds Rate 3,75–4,00 % (Stand: Sept. 21, 2026)
- FedRateCalc.com: FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026 – nächste Sitzung 27.–28. Oktober 2026
- CME Group FedWatch Tool: Historische Pause-Rate nach 25-bps-Hike-Zyklen (~75 %)
- Cassandra.news: Bestehende Prognose – US-PCE-Kerninflation August 2026 >3,3 % (Veröff. 26. Sept. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Das FOMC beschloss am 28. Oktober 2026 mit einer Abstimmung von 10-2, den Federal Funds Rate unverändert bei 3,75 %–4,00 % zu belassen. Zwei Mitglieder (Cleveland Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack und Fed-Gouverneurin Lisa Cook) dissentiert und votierten für eine Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte, konnten sich aber nicht durchsetzen. Der Markt hatte zuvor nur eine unter 10-prozentige Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Erhöhung eingepreist (CME FedWatch). Quellen: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html), Federal Reserve Board Press Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a1.htm), CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/28/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-october).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).