Swiss National Bank cuts policy rate by at least 25 basis points on September 25, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The SNB quarterly meeting on September 25, 2026 occurs amid strong CHF safe-haven demand from the Iran war (ongoing since February 2026) and global uncertainty. CHF appreciation creates deflationary import pressure and hurts Swiss exporters. The ECB at 2.75% is far above the SNB level, leaving room to ease. The SNB ran an aggressive easing cycle in 2024–2025; current rate estimated at ~0.25%. No Polymarket market found for this meeting; own probability of a cut: ~58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- SNB-Quartalssitzung 25. September 2026 bestätigt (SNB.ch Terminkalender)
- EZB-Einlagenzinssatz 2,75 %: Cassandra-Plattform, offene Vorhersage (Stand 21.09.2026)
- CHF Safe-Haven-Zufluss durch Iran-Krieg seit Februar 2026 (Wikipedia '2026 Iran war', Al Jazeera)
- SNB-Leitzins-Schätzung ~0,25 % auf Basis Senkungszyklus 2024–2025 (SNB-Pressemitteilungen)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The US Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to the target range of 3.75%–4.00% (FedRateCalc.com). Historically, the Fed pauses after a hike for at least one meeting before taking another step; the historical post-hike pause rate is approximately 75%. The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 27–28, 2026 — only six weeks after the September hike. Another increase so soon would require significantly above-expectation inflation data (PCE, CPI) forcing an immediate reaction. Current US core PCE inflation for August 2026 (released September 26) is projected above 3.3% YoY per an existing Cassandra forecast — elevated but within the Fed's known projection. Simultaneously, the ongoing Iran war (elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty) creates headwinds for aggressive continued tightening. No explicit Polymarket or Kalshi market for October FOMC available; own estimate 74%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The EURO STOXX 50 closed at 6,236.20 on September 18, 2026, having fallen 1.37% that day. The DAX is at 25,555; EUR/USD at 1.1489. The 6,100 threshold is ~2.2% below the last close — a move of that magnitude in a single day would be historically unusual without a clear catalyst. No Polymarket odds available for this threshold; own calibration based on recent close and implied daily volatility (~0.7–1.0%).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 is currently at approximately 7,638 (as of September 20, 2026). Based on the historical NDX/SPX ratio of ~4.0–4.2, the estimated current NDX level is approximately 30,500–32,100. The platform's existing prediction 'S&P 500 closes above 8,000 on December 31, 2026' implies an NDX year-end level of ~32,000–33,600 (at the same ratio). The 32,000 threshold represents the lower bound of that scenario; structural AI demand (NVDA >$210, AMD guidance ~$13B) supports the Nasdaq-100. No direct Polymarket market for NDX year-end available.