Bank of Japan raises policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% on October 30, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate (Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate) to 1.25% on September 18, 2026 in a 7-2 vote — the highest level in 31 years. TONA futures pricing (CentralBank.Watch) implies ~84% probability of a further hike at the October meeting (October 29–30). Drivers: persistent Japanese wage-price dynamics, rising inflation expectations above the 2% target, and BoJ board members Takata and Noguchi as advocates for acceleration. FXStreet reported: 'BoJ still on course for October hike.' The previous Bloomberg consensus scenario ('next hike in October') was partly shifted by the September move, but TONA pricing continues to lean toward October. Downside risk: the narrow 7-2 vote and global uncertainty (Iran war, US tariffs) could push the next move to December; Polymarket showed estimates in a wide band (22–78%). Calibrated at 67% accounting for market divergence.
Data basis for this prediction
- TONA-Terminmarkt: ~84 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für Oktober-Zinserhöhung, implizierte Rate 1,71 % bis 30.10. (CentralBank.Watch, 21.09.2026)
- BoJ hebt Leitzins auf 1,25 % (31-Jahres-Hoch), Votum 7-2 (CNBC, 18.09.2026)
- FXStreet: 'Bank of Japan still on course for October hike' (Sep 2026)
- Polymarket: BoJ Oktober-Entscheidung — Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit 22–78 % (breite Marktdivergenz, Stand Sep 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoJ hielt den Leitzins unverändert bei 1,25%; keine Anhebung auf 1,50% erfolgt (8:1-Entscheid). Quelle: Bloomberg
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