Japan's Democratic Party for the People (DPP/Kokumin Minshutō) wins at least 20 of the 125 contested Sangiin seats (election July 20, 2026)

CSIS and Bloomberg analysis projects the LDP-Komeito coalition losing its Upper House majority, driven by voter anger over rising rice prices, the 2024 LDP fundraising scandal, and stagnant real wages. The DPP under Tamaki Yūichirō benefits as a centrist-populist alternative; polls pegged the party at 18–27 new seats. An open Cassandra prediction already forecasts ≥15 seats; this prediction raises the bar to ≥20, consistent with the existing forecast (≥20 implies ≥15). No prediction market available; estimate from poll midpoint.