Brazil Presidential Election 2026: No candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round (4 October 2026); run-off scheduled for 25 October 2026 (confirmed via Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or Reuters by 6 October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 53% and Lula (PT) at 46% as overall election winner — these probabilities reflect the full two-round outcome, not first-round vote shares. Brazilian electoral law requires an outright majority (>50% of valid votes) to avoid a run-off; historically, smaller candidates jointly attract 8–15% of votes, making a run-off structurally near-inevitable. In 2022: Lula 48.4%, Bolsonaro 43.2% — no majority. With Simone Tebet, Ciro Gomes, and further candidates in 2026, a sub-50% first round for all leading candidates is near-certain. Prediction markets and Brazilian election analysts assess run-off probability at ~88%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl 2026: 53 % (Stand 16.09.2026)
- Polymarket: Lula gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl 2026: 46 % (Stand 16.09.2026)
- TSE Brasilien: Art. 77 CF – absolute Mehrheitspflicht im 1. Wahlgang (tse.jus.br, 2026)
- Präsidentschaftswahl Brasilien 2022: 1. Runde Lula 48,4 % / Bolsonaro 43,2 % (TSE, Okt. 2022)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, the Social Democrats won 28.1% and 100 of 349 seats. The centre-left bloc (S + V + MP + C) secured 176 seats vs. 173 for the governing Tidö coalition. PM Kristersson is expected to resign by September 22 per an open Cassandra prediction. The Riksdag Speaker (Talman) then opens consultations; Andersson, as leader of the largest party with a clear bloc majority, is the only realistic candidate. A three-week window to October 7 is consistent with Swedish constitutional procedure. No Polymarket market available; probability based on the election result and constitutional process.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the Russian State Duma election (September 18–20, 2026, three-day format), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) under Leonid Slutsky is competing as the Kremlin-licensed systemic opposition. The LDPR has obtained between 8 and 14% in every Duma election since 1993 and has always been kept above the 5% threshold. Available polls (severely censored) show the LDPR at approximately 8–9%. The party serves as an institutional outlet for nationalist sentiment and is indispensable to the Kremlin — a result below 7.0% would be politically dysfunctional. No open Polymarket market found for LDPR result; calibration based on historical results and institutional function.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, son of Jair Bolsonaro) runs as the Bolsonarista candidate after Jair Bolsonaro was barred from public office until 2030 by a TSE ruling. The latest Datafolha poll (September 2026) shows Flávio at ~33% in the first round. Polymarket gives a 76% probability for him finishing second in round one and a 55% overall win probability on $149.8M in trading volume. The 30% threshold is ~3 pp below the polling mean; with typical Brazilian polling errors of ±3–4 pp, the probability is approximately 67%. No contradiction with the open 'Lula >37%' prediction: both values can hold simultaneously.