🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Brazilian presidential election 2026: No candidate wins an outright majority in the first round (October 4, 2026) — runoff takes place on October 25, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

54%

Lula da Silva (PT) seeks re-election (open prediction: Lula wins the election). Historical pattern: in 2022, Lula received only 48.4% in round 1 — just below the required absolute majority (>50%) — and won only in the runoff. Without Bolsonaro as a candidate (due to election ban following conviction), a new right-wing candidate (Tarcísio de Freitas, Romeu Zema or similar) is likely to consolidate the conservative electorate. Brazilian election analysts (Datafolha, Quaest) predominantly expect a runoff. This prediction is compatible with the open Lula-wins prediction (he can win in round 2).

Data basis for this prediction

Brasilien-Wahl 2022: Lula 48,4 % Runde 1, Stichwahl 30. Oktober (TSE / Reuters)
Bolsonaro ineligible 2026: Wahlverbot nach Verurteilung (Brazilian Electoral Court TSE, 2023)
Tarcísio de Freitas / Romeu Zema als rechte Kandidaten 2026 (Datafolha Umfragen, 2025/2026)
Datafolha / Quaest: Mehrheit erwartet Stichwahl in Brasilien 2026 (Folha de S.Paulo, 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Im ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 erhielt Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47,03 % und Lula da Silva (PT) 45,16 % der gültigen Stimmen — kein Kandidat erreichte die erforderliche absolute Mehrheit (>50 %). Das Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) bestätigte offiziell eine Stichwahl für den 25. Oktober 2026. Einzig die Prognose zum rechtskandidierenden Akteur wich leicht ab: Nicht Tarcísio de Freitas oder Romeu Zema, sondern Flávio Bolsonaro (Sohn von Jair Bolsonaro) konsolidierte das rechtskonservative Lager — das strukturelle Kernargument (fragmentiertes Ergebnis, kein First-Round-Sieg) blieb jedoch vollständig korrekt. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Wikipedia '2026 Brazilian general election'.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026