🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Brazilian presidential election 2026: No candidate wins an outright majority in the first round (October 4, 2026) — runoff takes place on October 25, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

54%

Lula da Silva (PT) seeks re-election (open prediction: Lula wins the election). Historical pattern: in 2022, Lula received only 48.4% in round 1 — just below the required absolute majority (>50%) — and won only in the runoff. Without Bolsonaro as a candidate (due to election ban following conviction), a new right-wing candidate (Tarcísio de Freitas, Romeu Zema or similar) is likely to consolidate the conservative electorate. Brazilian election analysts (Datafolha, Quaest) predominantly expect a runoff. This prediction is compatible with the open Lula-wins prediction (he can win in round 2).

Data basis for this prediction

Brasilien-Wahl 2022: Lula 48,4 % Runde 1, Stichwahl 30. Oktober (TSE / Reuters)
Bolsonaro ineligible 2026: Wahlverbot nach Verurteilung (Brazilian Electoral Court TSE, 2023)
Tarcísio de Freitas / Romeu Zema als rechte Kandidaten 2026 (Datafolha Umfragen, 2025/2026)
Datafolha / Quaest: Mehrheit erwartet Stichwahl in Brasilien 2026 (Folha de S.Paulo, 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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